Ohio State Football: Evaluating Braxton Miller’s Over/Under Stat Projections

Las Vegas isn’t expecting a lot of growth from Braxton Miller this year.

That much became clear when Bovada released its over/under stat projections for a number of collegiate football players this week. Even though Ohio State’s star signal-caller has increased his game-to-game output in his three seasons with the Buckeyes, the online sportsbook has predicted modest numbers for Miller.

Here’s a look at his forecasted stats for the 2014 season.

Is Braxton Miller Headed for a Letdown?

Bovada set Miller’s over/unders surprisingly low, projecting 2,095.5 passing yards, 850.5 rushing yards and 32.5 total touchdowns. Comparing those numbers to previous seasons indicates Vegas is expecting Miller to flatline in his final year at Ohio State.

If these numbers hold up, that would actually mean Miller took a statistical step back in 2014.

The passing yards from 2013 and his projection for 2014 are nearly identical, but Miller missed most of three games last year after suffering a sprained MCL in his knee against San Diego State.

During that three-game stretch, backup quarterback Kenny Guiton threw for 643 yards and 12 touchdowns.

While Miller wasn’t the polished passer Guiton was in 2013, those three opponents (San Diego State, Cal and Florida A&M) fielded three of the worst pass defenses Ohio State faced. The Aztecs ranked No. 98 in total pass defense, Cal ranked dead last among FBS teams and Florida A&M gave up six…

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