Playoff Simulation: Can a No. 4 seed win it all again?

Seth Russell and Baylor might not let their opponent keep it close should the Bears make the College Football Playoff this season.(Photo: Jerome Miron, USA TODAY Sports) PredictionMachine.com’s Director of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, takes a look at what the College Football Playoffs could look like through 50,000 simulations of Football Four’s most likely four-team playoff. Follow John on Twitter  @JohnEwing for more notes from his analysis and to let him know what else you may like to see with these projections.  How this works The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play every game 50,000 times before it’s actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the College Football Playoff. Football Four Playoff Summary Four teams in the top 10 of the Amway Coaches Poll lost last week, shaking up the Football Four panel’s Playoff Projection once again. As it stands, Utah, TCU, Ohio State and Baylor are in, but a case can be made for why they each should be left out. Follow the road to the 2015 College Football Playoff at The Football Four, our home to rate and debate the nation’s best. UTAH Why they’re in: An early win against Michigan looks better with each passing week. The Wolverines are undefeated after dropping the season opener to the Utes, and a 42 point win over Oregon is impressive regardless of how you spin it. Why they’re out: When you view Utah through the lens of strength-of-schedule-adjusted statistics, not only are they not a top four team, but the Utes barely crack the top 25. TCU Why they’re in: The Horned Frogs have scored 50 or more points in four straight games and followed up a thrilling win over Texas Tech by crushing the Longhorns. Why they’re out: The defense nearly shutout Texas, but the jury is still out with seven starters missing. OHIO STATE Why they’re in: They are undefeated defending champions. …

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