The great debate over Big Ten bowl scenarios

Posted by ESPN.com’s Adam Rittenberg

The Big Ten is being extremely kind to its web-footed friends this week, hoping that some extra support from the heartland will spur the Oregon Ducks to a victory Saturday at Oregon State.

Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald publicly endorsed Oregon on Monday, and Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis did the same while accepting Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honors Monday night on the Big Ten Network.

Should the Ducks prevail in Corvallis, Oregon State likely would fall out of the Rose Bowl mix, limiting the Pac-10 to only one BCS entry, USC. It also likely would open the door for a second Big Ten team, Ohio State, to earn a BCS at-large berth, giving the Big Ten four straight seasons with multiple BCS entries.

So don’t be surprised if Emilio Estevez shows up in Columbus to lead chants of “Quack! Quack! Quack!” this weekend.

There are obvious benefits to getting two BCS teams into bowls.

The first, of course, is revenue for the league. Penn State would avoid a Rose Bowl rematch against Oregon State, which it crushed 45-14 on Sept. 6, and get a showcase matchup against USC. Ohio State would have a chance at redemption in a BCS bowl after flopping in the last two national title games. And four Big Ten teams would play in January bowl games instead of three.

But there’s another side to the debate, one that could have long-term benefits for a league that simply can’t afford a bad postseason because of its already damaged national reputation.

The Big Ten isn’t viewed favorably west of Minneapolis, east of State College and south of Bloomington. Those are the facts. I’m not saying it’s justified, but it’s reality, people.

League commissioner Jim Delany can’t be pleased that the Big Ten’s best team, Penn State, which dominated the schedule and has a 1-point road loss in lousy weather as its lone blemish, sits at No. 8 in the BCS standings.

Let’s assume Oregon State loses on Saturday. What if Penn State faces USC and gets demolished like Illinois and Michigan did the last two seasons? What if Ohio State collapses again on the national stage in the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl? What if Michigan State and Iowa stumble against the hated SEC in the Capital One and Outback bowls? What if Northwestern gets maimed by Missouri in the Alamo Bowl?

The Big Ten would lose even more credibility nationally, and next year’s champion could pay the price in 2009, much like Penn State did this year.

Now there’s another bowl scenario, which I’ll admit is somewhat defeatist in nature. But it could benefit the Big Ten down the road.

If Oregon State wins on Saturday, here are some possible outcomes for Big Ten teams.

Rose Bowl — Penn State faces Oregon State in a rematch and beats the Beavers for the second time.

Capital One Bowl – Ohio State goes up against Georgia in the Capital One Bowl and finally beats an SEC opponent.

Outback Bowl – Michigan State faces a beatable South Carolina team, and Mark Dantonio beats his alma mater.

Alamo Bowl – This matchup will be tough no matter which Big Ten team goes to San Antonio, but the way Iowa is playing defense, the Hawkeyes and star running back Shonn Greene could hold their own with Missouri or Nebraska. Iowa might be the Big Ten’s best bet in this game.

Champs Sports – Northwestern goes up against a comparable ACC opponent and wins a bowl game for the first time since the 1949 Rose Bowl.

This outcome could get the Big Ten its first Rose Bowl victory since 2000 (Wisconsin). It would get the Big Ten two victories against the dreaded SEC. It would continue the momentum for Michigan State, Iowa and Northwestern, three on-the-rise programs that should be strong again in 2009.

On the flip side, Penn State might not get the credit it deserves unless it beats USC, which hasn’t lost to a Big Ten team in the Rose Bowl since 1989 (Michigan). And Ohio State might need a BCS bowl win to start repairing its national image, which is still hurt by the BCS title flops and the 32-point loss at USC on Sept. 13.

The bottom line is the Big Ten desperately needs a strong postseason performance. Avoiding USC might not be a bad thing. Then again, an upset victory against the national darling Trojans could be exactly what the Big Ten needs.

It makes for an interesting debate when Big Ten fans put on their green-and-yellow Nikes and start quacking at the TV set on Saturday.

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