Ohio State vs. Penn State Preview

I figured we ought to take a closer look at this weekend’s game, seeing as all the pundits view it as a de facto Big Ten championship game. I’m not quite as sure of that (strange things tend to happen), but it is a big game, no question. So let’s take a closer look at it.

When Penn State Has The Ball
It all starts up front for the Nittany Lions. Penn State has the best offensive line in the Big Ten. Nobody in the Big Ten is rushing for more yards per game (234.63) or more yards per carry (5.8). Only Northwestern has given up fewer sacks (five, to Penn State’s six). Daryll Clark is a Heisman candidate and Evan Royster is one of the best backs in the Big Ten, if not the country, but it all starts up front. The Penn State blocking scheme places an emphasis on getting to the second level and blocking linebackers, so there should be opportunities for the defensive line to capitalize, but will they?

The last two weeks provide some hope. The defensive line was much more active against Purdue and Michigan State. Those aren’t awful o-lines, either: MSU had only given up four sacks all year before the Buckeyes picked up three, and Purdue has given up twelve, good for sixth in the Big Ten. PSU will be a major step up, but there is hope.

While PSU’s o-line philosophy creates opportunities for the Buckeye d-line, it limits them for the linebackers. James Laurinaitis’s biggest weakness is getting off blocks, which could be a problem. The Nittany Lions could have some success running right at them, especially with a back as good as Royster. He’s averaging 7.7(!) yards per carry. Don’t expect him to do quite that good against the Buckeyes, but don’t expect him to be bottled up, either.

Penn State’s not just going to run up the middle, though. They’ll spread the field wide, and that playes to the linebackers’ strength: speed. Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman are fast, and they’ll need to be to make plays out wide. They’ll also need to be smart, though, and not overrun anything.

Out wide is the Buckeye defense’s biggest strength: the corners. Derrick Williams gets the pub, but Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood are the leading receivers (sixth and seventh in the conference, respectively). The three talented receivers will match up against the Buckeyes’ three talented corners: Malcolm Jenkins, Chimdi Chekwa, and Donald Washington. Chekwa’s shoulder isn’t 100%, but Tressel says he’s going to play, and he’ll need to play well. Jenkins has been the best player on the roster, Washington was playing very well in fall camp and has done nothing to disappoint on the field, and Chekwa has been a pleasant surprise. These guys are good enough to at least contain the Nittany Lion’s receiving threats.

And they’ll need to do a good job with Daryll Clark taking the snaps. He’s seen as a dual threat, but if he is, it’s in the Troy Smith mold, a passer first and foremost. Clark averages just 23.75 yards per game. He prefers to sit in the pocket, and if the defense can’t get pressure on him, he’ll pick them apart. The OZone posits that the increased playing time Washington has seen has allowed the defense to blitz more and play man defense behind it. The Buckeyes will need to get after Clark, but not too aggressively; he’s still fast enough to beat teams on the ground.

When Ohio State Has The Ball
Beanie, Beanie, and more Beanie. The Penn State rush defense is second in the Big Ten (behind the Buckeyes), allowing 104 yards per game. However, teams have rushed 57 more times at the Nittany Lions than at the Buckeyes, suggesting that they see something that leads them to think they can have success on the ground (or that they were just running teams, but whatever). And in conference play, the PSU rush defense hasn’t been nearly as effective, allowing 155.5 yards per game (6th in the Big Ten) to Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Decent rushing teams all, but not as good as the Buckeyes. While the Penn State d-line is collectively a strength, the defensive tackles aren’t great (good, just not as good as the ends), and can be run at. And at the second level they’ve got Josh Hull at middle linebacker, who is pretty average. The other linebackers are very good, but this front seven’s weakness is up the middle.

It’s strength is the defensive ends. Aaron Maybin isn’t huge, but he’s fast and excellent. He’s second in the nation with ten sacks.  The other ends are also talented and fast. The OSU tackles will have to be on their game, and if Steve Rehring sees any time at right tackle, be afraid. Rehring’s move to right guard seems to be paying dividends, though, and hopefully that continues Saturday. A solid ground game is important not just for the offense, but as a defensive weapon, keeping PSU’s explosive offense off the field.

While we’ll all be concerned if Pryor is throwing the ball 30 or 40 times against the Nittany Lions, he may have some luck against their defensive backfield. They haven’t been tested much all season, in large part because the front four does such a good job of pressuring the quarterback. If Pryor can avoid that pressure, he may be able to move the ball through the air. Avoiding that pressure will be a big if, though, considering how often he’s been sacked. He’ll have to be decisive against this defense. He can make one read, maybe two, then it’ll be time to take off running and take what he can get.

Concluding With A Conclusion
This one should be interesting. This is a team that the Buckeyes handled easily last season in State College. However, it’s also a team that’s been crushing everyone they’ve played so far. Meanwhile, this is a Buckeye team that is capable of 45 points against Michigan State, but also capable of no offensive touchdowns against Purdue. The Buckeyes have the best player in the game in Beanie Wells, but the Nittany Lions have the better lines. Who knows how it’ll play out? Before the season, we had every reason to be confident. After USC we had every reason to be terrified. Now, who knows? Whatever happens, it should be a good one.

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