Ohio State vs. Texas: The Fiesta Bowl Preview

So, the big game is almost here. If you ask most people, they’ll tell you they shouldn’t even bother playing this one. Just give the victory to Texas and spare the Buckeyes another embarassment. The game is still going to be played, though, and a Buckeye victory wouldn’t be the strangest thing to happen in college football. In fact, it would be the continuation of a trend. The last time the Buckeyes were expected to get crushed in a Fiesta Bowl, things went well. So let’s take a look at this year’s version of the game.

Ohio State Defense vs. Texas Offense
What does Texas do well? Um, everything? 35th in rushing offense, 10th in passing offense, 2nd in pass efficiency, 9th in total offense, 4th in scoring offense. You can point out that these numbers came against the defense-deficient Big 12, but still, that’s pretty good. Colt McCoy is the leading rusher at just 48 yards per game, but the ground game as a whole gets the job done. They don’t exactly have to carry a lot of weight with the Texas passing game. They get a shade under 300 yards a game through the air, and McCoy doesn’t make many mistakes, throwing for 32 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. Slot receiver extraordinaire Jordan Shipley is the leading target at 81.83 yards per game, but Quan Cosby is just behind him at at 79.33 yards per game.

How can the Buckeyes stop the Longhorns? That’s the big question, isn’t it? Nobody’s really stopped this offense. A start would be pressuring McCoy. The Longhorns do only an average job of protecting McCoy, giving up 1.83 sacks per game, 57th in the country. You might think that’s because they pass so much, but they’ve only attempted 389 passes, well behind the Texas Techs (662 attempts) and Houstons (610) of the world.

They also need to stop the run. That doesn’t seem to fit with the image of Texas having a high-powered aerial attack, but Texas has rushed 479 times and passed 389 times this season. Some of that’s certainly because Texas has played with a lead so much this season, but I think it also represents that they don’t neglect the  ground game. Woody Hayes used to focus on stopping the best part of an opponent’s offense, saying “make them beat us left-handed.” I don’t think you can stop Texas’s passing game entirely, so this is more a case of “don’t let them beat us with both hands.”

One thing the Buckeyes can do that few other teams can is cover Jordan Shipley with a quality corner. Donald Washington would be a starter were it not for his season-starting suspension, and if the coaches are smart, they’ll put him on Shipley, not Jermale Hines or (please please please not) Anderson Russell. Washington is good enough to contain, if not stop, Shipley. Slowing down one of Texas’s primary weapons would go a long way toward stopping their offense.

Ohio State Offense vs. Texas Defense
What does Texas do well? Stop the run. They’re second in the country in rush defense, giving up 73.58 yards per game. Big 12 teams love to pass, true, but that’s impressive. Texas also does a great job getting to the quarterback. They get 3.67 sacks per game, tops in the country. Since the Bucks are 82nd in the country in sacks allowed, that’s cause for concern.

How can the Buckeyes attack the Texas defense? Well, they’re certainly going to test that rush defense. This Texas defense hasn’t seen a running back like Beanie. It’s not inconcievable to think that the Buckeyes can succeed where others have failed against this defense and move the ball on this defense.

But it also looks like this defense can be had through the air. They’re 108th in pass defense, giving up 266.33 yards per game. They’re also 60th in pass efficiency defense. Two factors mitigate that: opponents are usually passing to try and catch up, and they play in the Big 12, where everyone throws a lot. Still, those aren’t good numbers. We won’t see the Buckeyes slinging the ball all over the field, but it’s likely that they’ll try to catch what looks to be a vulnerable secondary in a mistake from time to time (the rumored plan of having Boeckman and Pryor on the field at the same time may be part of that). The important thing will be to get the ball out of Pryor’s hands quickly. Texas DE Brian Orakpo, as the sack numbers above indicate, is not just a product of hype, and against OSU’s rather lackluster o-line, could have a field day. On the other hand, Pryor’s mobility could help slow down the Texas pass rush.

Prediction? Pain. Always, pain. Dunno for who, but for someone. Hopefully not us.

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