Warts and all - a look at the top five contenders
August 16, 2008
With the pre-season polls in full bloom, it’s time to take a look at the concensus contenders to try and determine what — if anything — might stand between them and the BCS national championship.
1. Georiga
Say what you want about the history of the SEC’s OOC scheduling, the fact is Georgia has a championship caliber schedule this year. The Dawgs get some home baking with FCS Georgia Southern and Central Michigan of the MAC to start the season, but then go on the road at South Carolina and at Arizona State in back-to-back weeks. Alabama, Tennessee and Vandy follow at home, but then it’s the stretch run of at LSU, at the Cocktail Party against Florida, at Kentucky, and at Auburn. The Bulldogs finish the season at home against Georgia Tech, but will likely still have to face the SEC West champion — likely to be a rematch against one of the Tiger teams — in the SEC title game. Georgia fits the historical profile of a BCS champion, but… that’s a tough schedule and may be the downfall of the Georgia Bulldogs in 2008.
2. USC
It’s been at least seven years since the Trojans had this many questions on offense and — despite having more talent on the field than most FBS teams — there’s a real question as to how (and when) this team is going to come together. Let’s overlook the fact that the Trojans lost 26 lettermen from last season’s squad. USC returns just four starters on offense and have serious questions to answer on the offensive line. If the line can’t protect Sanchez, USC does have good depth at QB, but there are still question marks in the backfield. The team has yet to find a feature back and will likely return to the RB-by-committee system of years past. USC’s defense should keep them in games, but the question marks on offense could trip USC as they try to march to another BCS national championship.
3. Ohio State
The biggest obstacle to the National Championship for the Buckeyes has got to be the poll voters. Ohio State is the consensus pick as Big 10 champions and the 2008 schedule generally lines us pretty nicely for the Bucks. The September game at USC looms large for the Buckeyes, but tOSU gets two weeks to tune up for the Trojans and should be ready for their trip out west. The real problem is that OSU is playing against the skeletons in their closet - nine straight bowl losses to SEC teams and a couple of the most miserable BCS title game performances ever. So… not only do the Buckeyes have to win, they have to win in such convincing fashion that the poll voters will ignore Ohio State’s recent history and — again — place OSU in the national championship game. I will not be surprised if the Buckeyes get passed over in favor of another top contender, even if Ohio State has a superior record. That’s how strong the prejudice may be this year. It’s a huge obstacle for OSU and may be the only thing that can stop the Buckeyes from reaching the National Championship game.
4. Oklahoma
The Sooners are my pick for the national championship this year. While the Sooners may face some BCS backlash of their own for their recent performances, OU may not even get a shot if they don’t grow up quickly in the secondary. Oklahoma will have to get a lot of pressure out of their strong front four to take pressure of an inexperienced linebacker corp and secondary. The Big XII has a great crop of gun-slinging QBs and that’s not a great recipe when your secondary is so green. The Sooners get a little help on the schedule, but are still going to have to get through fiesty Cincinnati and TCU before games with Texas, Texas Tech, and Kansas. And their reward? Likely another Big XII championship game against a more experienced Chase Daniel and the Missouri Tigers. OU’s got plenty of firepower on offense and they can win a shootout - which is a good thing, considering they may have to if the secondary doesn’t grow up quickly.
5. Florida
This is just my opinion, but I truly believe that the Florida Gators may be one of the most over-rated teams going into the 2008 season. Yes… Tebow… Heisman… Superman… Percy Harvin…. I get it. What I question is just how much better the Gators will be on defense, especially in the secondary? When we watched UF, they were getting torched with the forward pass… by Michigan. What’s the old saying… defense wins championships? I know I’ve said it before, but Florida absolutely must improve on defense. The Gators defense gave up a 60+ percent completition percentage last year and finished dead last in the SEC in yards allowed. UF finished 71st in pass efficiency defense and 46th in scoring defense at over 25 points allowed per game (and that includes games against Western Kentucky and Troy!) The UF secondary is very green still, even with a year of experience, and will be without starting safety Dorian Munroe, who tore his ACL this offseason. Even with the incoming freshman stud Will Hill shagging balls in his place, it’s an exceptionally green secondary (yet again) for the Gators. The defense cost UF a trip to the SEC championship (and maybe the BCS) last year… and Florida will be fighting those same demons in close games this year, as well.
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