Mitch’s Week 10 College Football Picks: Part Three

I have spent hours poring through information. In fact, I spent so much time working on that stuff that today is going to be a little lighter than usual in the number of games I’m picking, and tomorrow will be heavier than normal.

As everyone knows, Thursday night hasn’t been kind to me, so I’m going to defer to Jordan on that game this week as he’s been red hot, going 7-2 against the spread last week and bringing his documented season total to 59-20.

I do have an opinion on the game, and I talk about it on the video today, but I think Jordan brings up some valid points and the guy is on one heck of a roll.

I’m getting a steady stream of entries into the picking contest, and it looks like it will be like everything else around here—just bigger every week as we continue to grow. There’s still time to sign up and enter, and it’s really easy and a lot of fun.

Let’s get to some more of the games that I’m looking at.

Arkansas State +23 1/2 at Alabama (Saturday, Nov. 1, 3 EST): 4 out of 10

I think we have a serious value play that at least is worth taking a shot at. While I don’t have the most confidence I have ever had taking the points against the Tide this year like I did with Ole Miss and Kentucky, I do think the oddsmakers may have just been a bit too generous in this one.

Statistically this looks like one of those where one team has a much better offense and one team has a better defense. The key matchup here is going to come down to Arkansas State’s 12th-ranked rushing offense being able to or not being able to run on the Tide’s second-ranked rushing defense.

The Red Wolves will try to set up the run with the passing game of Corey Leonard, who had 11 TDs against just three INTs this season.

Arkansas State seems to have its way covering the spread against SEC teams, coming in at 10-4 against the number in their last 14 against the spread.

We all know of the Tide’s struggles against the number, covering just three of the last 10 times they have played a team with a winning record, 6-20-2 in their last 28 in Tuscaloosa, and a miserable 2-6 against the spread in their last eight following an against the spread win.

We have all seen the Tide inexplicably struggle against inferior competition, and while ASU is inferior on many levels, starting with depth, they are close enough to at least cover and may give the home folk a good scare.

Go here for more of Mitch’s Week 10 picks against the spread.

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The 11 Best 11s (Week Eight): Penn State Makes Its Case For No. 1

                                            The 11 Best 11s (Week Eight)

In the topsy-turvy world of this college football season, it only seems right that three storied, undefeated programs can make a legitimate case for being ranked No. 1 this week. A case may be made for several other teams as well.

 

1. Penn State Nittany Lions                                               Last Week – #2

In my view, this is the best team in the country. The Lions are rekindling the memories of yesteryear (see picture above) when Franco Harris and Lydell Mitchell ran roughshod over everyone they faced. I have seen Penn State in the BCS Title Game for a while now.

 

2. Alabama Crimson Tide                                                  Last Week – #4

This is a great team capable of winning the national championship. For some time now, I have suggested we could have a rematch of the 1978 season Title Game. We know Nick Saban is a master coach but, can even he defeat the living legend, Joe Paterno?

 

3. Texas Longhorns                                                            Last Week – #9

Big jump from last week, but they deserve it for taking advantage of injury-plagued No. 1 Oklahoma to outscore them 25-7 down the stretch. Texas appears to have an adequate  running attack and a solid defense. Remaining schedule is softer than once believed. 

 

4. Southern California Trojans                                         Last Week – #5

While they have the talent and coaching of the top three teams, the defense could be the best of all. Until one of the top three loses, I’ll keep the Trojans in this position.

 

5. Florida Gators                                                              Last Week – #11

The big win in the big game of the day, no doubt the most impressive team of Saturday, the mighty Gators of Florida. We had wondered who would wake up first, Florida or Georgia? They both have. This is a team capable of winning the rest of their games.

 

6. Ohio State Buckeyes                                                   Last Week – #7

This is a different team than the one that lost to Southern Cal. Freshman QB Terrelle Pryor gives them the explosiveness and athletic ability to compete with anyone. Watch out for a run to the Roses from this formidable squad, and a possible rematch with USC.

 

7. Georgia Bulldogs                                                         Last Week – #11

This team muscled their way past Tennessee and have set their sights on the SEC East crown. While the rest of the country seems to have forgotten about them, this outstanding squad creates its own breaks on defense and is dangerous on offense.

 

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders                                                Last Week – #8

While they have the offense to play with anyone, the overtime win over Nebraska demonstrates the problem they will have when their concentration is lacking. The Red Raiders will have to shore up some of their defensive holes to get into the BCS.

 

9. Boise State Broncos                                                    Last Week – N/R

It’s a great tribute to the folks of this Idaho power that no one looks twice when they move into the top of the rankings. We all know them, we know they can beat the big teams and the best teams. If they keep winning, they could end up in the BCS again.

 

10. Brigham Young Cougars                                          Last Week – #10

While the Cougars have the longest winning streak in America, they seem to be stagnant. The long streak may be weighing them down. Watch for the late season game with unbeaten Utah, that will be for the Mountain West Title and a possible BCS slot.

 

11.a) Oklahoma Sooners                                              Last Week – #1                      

11.b) Missouri Tigers                                                    Last Week – #3

11.c) LSU Tigers                                                           Last Week – #6

Misery loves company so, we’ll have a three-way tie for 11th with the three big losers of Saturday. It helped Florida and Georgia snap back, maybe it will work for these three.

 

ON THE PORCH: OKLAHOMA STATE, MICHIGAN STATE, UTAH, TULSA, CALIFORNIA

 

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College Football: The Five Most Suprising and Five Most Disappointing Teams

The Five Most Surprising Teams

1) Vanderbilt Commodores (5-0, 3-0)

After years of being SEC’s perennial punching bag, head coach Bobby Johnson has Vanderbilt in contention to win the SEC East.

Beating Auburn last night could be a watershed moment for the program, provided Johnson doesn’t leave for a bigger name school. This wasn’t a scheduling fluke either; Vandy has beaten South Carolina, won at Ole Miss, and beaten Auburn. Look for a 7-9-win season and their first bowl since 1982. 

2) Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0, 3-0)

Nick Saban decided that everyone’s three to four year plan to return Alabama football to prominence was too long. So, he did it in two.

They are the nation’s most physical team, just ask the Clemson Tigers and the Georgia Bulldogs—two preseason top 10 teams who wilted under the Tide’s massive lines. Also, John Parker Wilson is doing an efficient job at quarterback.

3) Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0, 2-0)

No team has stayed within two touchdowns of Penn State this year. This includes Oregon State, who beat the USC Trojans, and explosive Big 10 rival Illinois. Penn State was expected to be good, but not dominant.

If they can get by a reeling Wisconsin team next week, only a game at Ohio State on October 25 may stand in the way of finishing undefeated.

4) Northwestern Wildcats (5-0, 1-0)

The beauty of college football is that when nearly at the midpoint of the season, schools like Northwestern and Vanderbilt are a combined 10-0. The Wildcats could be 9-0 before playing Ohio State, on Nov. 8. Don’t think so? Next four are Michigan State and Purdue at home, and Indiana and Minnesota on the road. Those are all winnable games.  

5) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-1, 2-1)

Paul Johnson’s critics said his triple option offense wouldn’t work in the ACC, and many media types had the Jackets winning only three, four, or five games this year.

Johnson is proving them all wrong. With the ACC’s best defensive line, as the anchor, and the offense rapidly improving, the Jackets will only get better as the season progresses.

 

The Five Most Disappointing Teams

1) Tennessee Volunteers (2-3, 0-2)

Predicted by many to at least be a contender in the SEC East, if not one of the favorites, the Vols are the Division’s worst team.

Phillip Fulmer looks lost. His seat isn’t hot, it’s on fire.

Vol fans have just about had it with an inept offense. The SEC is already unforgiving and when in-state rival, Vanderbilt, surpasses you, well, these are tough times in Knoxville.

2) West Virginia Mountaineers (3-2, 1-0)

West Virginia was supposed to march through their schedule and be 6-0 when the Auburn Tigers came calling on October 23. It didn’t work out that way.

They had two losses in their first three games.

Additionally, the nation’s most dynamic player, Pat White, looks confused without backfield mates Owen Schmitt, and Steve Slaton. Bill Stewart is not off to a good start, either. However, the Big East is still there for the taking, so the season is not all lost… yet.

3) Clemson Tigers (3-2, 1-1)

C.J. Spiller, James Davis, and Cullen Harper were all returning, coming off a nine-win season. There was skill, talent, and a ready ACC. This was Clemson’s year to win the ACC.

So far, the results have been far below expectations. First, there was an opening game where Alabama manhandled the Tigers, then the coaching debacle against Maryland. Now, the Tigers are close to wasting a golden opportunity for winning the ACC. Bowden is facing a major nightmare if the season doesn’t turn around, and fast.

4) Auburn Tigers (4-2, 2-2)

Tommy Tuberville has to be wondering if he made a mistake overhauling his offensive scheme to employ the spread offense. It just hasn’t caught on yet, and the Tigers are having a lot of trouble scoring and moving the ball. They looked like they were in total control after a quarter and a-half against Vanderbilt. Then, they couldn’t score.

If there is something you don’t want to be, it is the second best team in the state of Alabama.  

5) Arizona State Wildcats (2-3, 1-1)

They were supposed to be the Georgia Bulldogs’ toughest early-season test. Instead, they lost to UNLV, weren’t competitive against the Dawgs, and simply went through the motions against California in another loss.

Next up is an angry USC squad. A 2-6 start is not out of the question, because after USC is Oregon, and after that a road game with Oregon State.

 

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Hoke’s College Football Big Game Breakdown: Week Five

Well, Week Five is here, and once again the SEC is carrying the day with the marquee games in the nation. Last week it was LSU at Auburn and Florida traveling to Tennessee. This week the Vols travel to Auburn, and in the biggest game in the country, the Crimson Tide of Alabama travel to Athens to take on the Georgia Bulldogs.

Here are the big games this weekend and how I see them breaking down.

No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)

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No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (4-0)

Must See Rating: 5 out of 5

Key Matchup: Alabama Rushing Offense (236 ypg, 14th nationally) vs. Georgia Rush Defense (46 ypg, third nationally)

In the biggest game in the country in Week Five, the Tide travels to Athens to take on the red hot Georgia Bulldogs. Georgia comes in with national title hopes on the line and hoping to make a big statement win to the nation. Alabama comes in on a roll and literally running over their opponents on their way to a 4-0 start.

For Alabama, it’s simple: Run the ball and stop the run. Alabama’s strength on offense is clearly their run game, led by Glen Coffee, who is averaging 100 yards per game and eight yards a carry. If the Alabama run game gets going, they have a great shot at the upset in Athens.

They also have to stop Knowshon Moreno and company from controlling the clock themselves. Of course, the way Matthew Stafford is playing, he’s just as dangerous these days.

Alabama doesn’t have a quick strike offense, so getting down by a couple of scores could be costly. Javier Arenas needs to be an X-factor returning punts and setting Alabama up in good field position.

In Georgia’s case, it’s all about the rush defense. Alabama is currently rolling over teams, and if Georgia wants to win this game, it comes down to stopping that powerful run game of Alabama and making John Parker Wilson beat you.

Wilson is coming off a 74-yard performance against Arkansas and hasn’t been asked to do a whole lot through the air so far.

Offensively, Knowshon Moreno will find it tough sledding against an Alabama defense that is in the top 10 in the nation in stopping the run. Matthew Stafford and the receivers will have to make some plays through the air and down the field like they did a week ago at Arizona State.

This game comes down to the lines of scrimmage and the QBs. Whoever can stop the run and get better production from their QB is the winner.

Georgia is more balanced, so they can get shut down in one area and still win a game. Alabama has been fairly one dimensional so far, so it will be crucial that they find success running the football so the game isn’t all in Wilson’s hands.

Winner: Georgia

Player of the Game: QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia

No. 21 Illinois Fighting Illini (2-1)

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No. 12 Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)

Must See Rating: 4 out of 5

Key Matchup: Illinois Rush Offense (224 ypg, 15th nationally) vs. Penn State Rush Defense (52 ypg, seventh nationally)

In the first big in-conference matchup of the season in the Big Ten, Illinois travels to Happy Valley to take on a Penn State team that has been dominant so far.

Illinois and Juice Williams are looking to show that they are still one of the best teams in the conference even without Rashard Mendenhall, while Penn State is ready to show that they are for real after playing some nice tune-up games before conference play.

Illinois comes in with only one loss, and that was to top five Missouri in the season opener. Many people wondered if the Illini could continue their success after big time running back Rashard Mendenhall left early for the NFL, but with Juice Williams back, they are still rolling up points on offense and looking like a contender.

The key for Illinois will be getting that running game rolling with Williams at QB and Daniel Dufrene at running back. That is the strength of this team, and it will have a tough task going against a rush defense in Penn State that is only giving up 53 yards per game on the ground.

Penn State is on a roll right now, both on offense and defense. New quarterback Daryll Clark has been great in the Nittany Lions’ spread offense, and running back Evan Royster is making a name for himself as well. Penn State currently ranks in the top 10 in nine different categories on offense and defense.

There is, though, a question about who they have played. Coastal Carolina, Syracuse, and Temple aren’t exactly world beaters, so Joe Paterno and his boys should be eager to show the nation what they have against top 25 competition.

Penn State comes in doing everything well, but the toughest task they will face is corralling Juice Williams and the Illini run game and getting off the field.

Illinois will come into this game ready to play and control the clock and keep the high-powered Nittany Lion offense off the field. Juice will make his plays, you know that, but the Illini don’t look to be quite balanced enough against this tough Penn State defense to score many points.

Penn State’s offense is going to score at home, so it will be up to Juice and company to try and keep up.

Winner: Penn State

Player of the Game: RB Evan Royster, Penn State

Tennessee Volunteers (1-2)

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No. 16 Auburn Tigers (3-1)

Must See Rating: 4 out of 5

Key Matchup: Tennessee Pass Eff. Defense (99.7, 23rd nationally) vs. Auburn Pass Offense (188 ypg, 88th nationally)

In what looked like a potentially huge game a week ago, both teams are now coming off tough losses at home on national TV. Auburn comes in with a close loss to defending champion LSU and will have to regroup quickly after a big emotional letdown.

Tennessee comes in reeling even more than Auburn after a bad-looking loss to Florida at home that saw the Vols make mistake after mistake. This is truly a must-win game for both teams, so it could turn out to be very entertaining.

Tennessee has struggled with consistency this season, especially at QB. They have a solid offensive line and two solid backs in Arian Foster and Monterio Hardesty. The problem seems to be with new QB Jonathan Crompton.

Crompton has all his receivers returning, but he has struggled to make good decisions and get the ball to his playmakers on the outside.

Defensively the Vols are very talented and haven’t been helped much this season by an inconsistent offense. The Vols’ secondary is as good as it gets, led by stud Eric Berry at safety.

The Vols have to stop the Auburn run game like LSU did and then take advantage of any errant throws Auburn QB Chris Todd might make. The Vols also have to get Foster and Hardesty rolling. If they do, then this could be a big upset.

Auburn comes in off a tough loss at home to LSU and will be tested as to how quick they can get back up off the mat emotionally. The big question for Auburn has been the offense and the new spread attack. There has been much criticism so far about the offense because of a lack of a power running game and limited big plays down the field.

QB Chris Todd is the starter, and he’s been good, but he lacks the elusiveness that is oftentimes needed in the spread offense. The Tigers have to get some kind of consistent running game going in order to take pressure off Todd and get some plays open down field.

Defensively the Tigers have been good as always. Despite a bad second half against LSU, Auburn is a top 20 defense in the nation and will make it tough for the Vols to get the running game going.

This game could actually be one of the most entertaining games in the nation just because both teams are looking at a must-win situation. Tennessee’s coach Phillip Fulmer has fielded questions this week about his job security, and Auburn’s offense has been under harsh criticism after the losses last week.

Both teams are fighting for their SEC lives this week. A loss for either puts them squarely behind the eight ball in the race to Atlanta, where a win rights the ship and gets things back to normal for at least one more week.

Winner: Auburn

Player of the Game: QB Chris Todd, Auburn

No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers (3-0)

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Michigan Wolverines (1-2)

Must See Rating: 3 out of 5

Key Matchup: Wisconsin Rush Offense (238 ypg, 13th nationally) vs. Michigan Rush Defense (65 ypg, 12th nationally)

Wisconsin is about to start a three-game stretch that will decide their season. They have Michigan on the road, then play at home against Ohio State and Penn State. It all starts, though, with a road game at Michigan. The Wolverines are looking to start a new season in conference play and forget the losses to Utah and Notre Dame to start the season.

Michigan’s offense has been so sporadic that it seems hard to think they will be able to score enough points to win this game. The only chance they have is to somehow stop the power running game of P.J. Hill and the Badgers and find their offense at home.

Wisconsin has one of the best backs in the nation in Hill and one of the best tight ends in the nation in Travis Beckum as well to throw to. If the Badgers get the run game rolling, not only will they score 20-plus points, the Michigan offense won’t be on the field—and they need as many chances to score as possible.

Winner: Wisconsin

Player of the Game: RB P.J. Hill, Wisconsin

No. 24 TCU Horned Frogs (4-0)

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No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)

Must See Rating: 3 out of 5

Key Matchup: TCU Defense (183 ypg, first nationally) vs. Oklahoma Offense (556 ypg, fourth nationally)

Can TCU do it again? They went into Norman a couple of years ago and shocked the Sooners in pulling off the upset. They come into this game undefeated and back in the top 25 heading into Norman. The Sooners are steamrolling opponents, and TCU should be a good warmup game for the Big 12 schedule.

TCU comes in with the number one-ranked defense in the entire nation and are coming off a solid performance, holding the pass-happy SMU team to seven points. The question is whether they can do it against Oklahoma’s Heisman Trophy candidate Sam Bradford and company. TCU sports some ridiculous numbers, but they haven’t been tested yet—that’s about to change.

TCU will look to keep this ball on the ground with quarterback Andy Dalton and running back Aaron Brown. The Horned Frogs run a lot of zone read, and they will have to be successful in running the ball to score and keep the Oklahoma offense off the field.

Oklahoma is on the right track to a national title shot, and they have the offense and defense to do it. The Sooners are currently in the top 10 in nine different offensive and defensive categories and lead the nation in scoring offense.

Sam Bradford comes in as one of the best QBs in the nation and will have to be at his best on Saturday going against a tough TCU defense that will look to take away the run. Look for Bradford to air it out early and often.

Winner: Oklahoma

Player of the Game: QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma

Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1)

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Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0)

Must See Rating: 3 out of 5

Key Matchup: Virginia Tech Rush Offense (172 ypg, 45th nationally) vs. Nebraska Rush Defense (77 ypg, 18th nationally)

In one of the more intriguing non-conference games of the season, the Hokies of Virginia Tech travel to Lincoln to take on Nebraska in Bo Pelini’s first big game at home as head coach of the Cornhuskers.

Virginia Tech has already had a topsy-turvy season. First they suffer a season-opening loss to upstart East Carolina, then they pull the redshirt off QB Tyrod Taylor and have since won three games in a row, including a come from behind win at North Carolina.

The Hokies are starting to build confidence, and a road win at a place like Nebraska would only help that going into the meat of the ACC schedule.

Nebraska has played a cupcake schedule so far this season and has rolled up nice numbers across the board because of it. The Cornhuskers will be tested big time in this matchup, but the home crowd should provide a big lift. Nebraska needs to get Marlon Lucky going early and often and take control of the game from the start.

This is an interesting game and should feature a couple of good rushing attacks. The Nebraska defense has gotten a little tougher from last season with the addition of converted offensive linemen to defense, and converted running back Cody Glenn leads the team in tackles at his linebacker spot.

Tyrod Taylor has jumpstarted the Hokie offense and is looking to keep it going on the road in Lincoln.

Winner: Nebraska Cornhuskers

Player of the Game: RB Marlon Lucky, Nebraska

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