Early schedule snapshot: Iowa

Posted by ESPN.com's Adam Rittenberg

The Big Ten schedule is nearly complete after Indiana added its final nonconference game today. The Iowa Hawkeyes are up next on the rundown. 

NONCONFERENCE SCHEDULE

Sept. 5 Northern Iowa

Sept. 12 at Iowa State

Sept. 19 Arizona

Oct. 3 Arkansas State

My take: This is a solid nonconference slate that should prepare Iowa for a Big Ten opener — Sept. 26 at Penn State — that could go a long way in deciding the league championship. Northern Iowa reached the FCS playoff semifinals last year before losing to eventual national champion Richmond in the final minute. Iowa State is a transitioning program with a new head coach (Paul Rhoads), but the Cyclones always play Iowa tough in the Cy-Hawk series. Arizona also might be rebuilding in 2009 but comes off a solid 2008 season capped by a Las Vegas Bowl victory over BYU. Iowa will be favored in all four games but should be tested at times. 

BIG TEN SCHEDULE

Sept. 26 at Penn State

Oct. 10 Michigan

Oct. 17 at Wisconsin

Oct. 24 at Michigan State

Oct. 31 Indiana

Nov. 7 Northwestern

Nov. 14 at Ohio State

Nov. 21 Minnesota 

Byes: Purdue, Illinois

My take: Iowa's trip to Penn State will be one of the Big Ten's marquee games this fall, but the Hawkeyes must avoid a hangover or a letdown, depending on the result at Beaver Stadium. The stretch following Penn State is crucial, as Iowa hosts a transitioning Michigan team before visiting Wisconsin, a team it embarrassed last year, and making a second consecutive trip to Michigan State. If the Hawkeyes survive the first four games, they'll be in good shape for another road showdown against Ohio State on Nov. 14. The home schedule is manageable, but Iowa gets no breaks away from Kinnick Stadium. 

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BCS Got it Right: Oklahoma More Deserving than Texas or Texas Tech

I’m not a Texas fan or a Texas Tech fan and I don’t like Oklahoma.

I don’t like Oklahoma because they appear to get overrated in the polls each year and because I seem to remember Bob Stoops once saying, “The Big East and the Atlantic Coastal Conference should  play an elimination game for a BCS automatic bid.”

I’m hoping Oklahoma loses to Missouri this weekend and ends up playing Boise State in a bowl game.

However, I really do believe that the Sooners rightfully deserve the chance to play in the Big 12 Championship game over Texas or Texas Tech.

I know that Texas beat Oklahoma 45-35 on a neutral field and I know that Texas Tech beat Texas and Oklahoma beat Texas Tech.

You can go around in circles forever about which one deserves the higher BCS ranking on the basis of these three games. That’s up to you.

Oklahoma is still the right choice!

The Sooners aren’t more deserving because they totally annihilated Texas Tech as some people suggest, but rather because they went out and beat some tough non-conference teams while Texas and Texas Tech did not.

Oklahoma beat Cincinnati, the Big East champion, and TCU, currently ranked 11th in the BCS.

Texas played and beat Arkansas, Rice, UTEP, and Florida Atlantic. Meanwhile, Texas Tech had the easiest schedule of any Divison 1A team in the country—the Red Raiders beat Umass, Eastern Washington, Nevada, and SMU.

There is a lesson here—if you want to be highly-regarded, go out and schedule some tough non-conference teams!

Alabama, No. 1 in the BCS, didn’t make an effort to play a tough non-conference schedule. I don’t consider Clemson, Tulane, Western Kentucky, and Arkansas State a real test. They’re No. 1 because no one else from a BCS conference is undefeated.

Florida did play some tough games out of conference. They beat Miami (FL) and Florida State. This didn’t get them ranked higher than Alabama because they have a loss, but it did help the odds makers to decide they should be a 10-point favorite over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game this weekend.

USC is another team that made an effort to play a good non-conference schedule—Virginia, Notre Dame, and Ohio State. Nobody knew how bad Notre Dame was going to be, but I believe it’s the way they beat Ohio State and the great defense they play that makes USC the best team in the country.

Back to the topic: Oklahoma should be rewarded for aggressive scheduling and Texas and Texas Tech should be penalized for poor scheduling.

This makes more sense than arguing about which one of the three had better wins against each other.

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College Football Week 15: Early Lines and Point Spreads

It’s hard to believe we are 15 weeks into the college football season and nothing has been decided as far as most of the bowls and even the national title picture.

While we don’t have anything like a full schedule of games, we have some nice quality and some real meaningful ones that should keep everyone glued to their TV sets. I’ll be in Las Vegas during the latter part of the week for the Manny Pacquiao-Oscar De La Hoya fight but as has been the case in the past, things here should go pretty smoothly (fingers crossed).

Because of the limited schedule and because of the time or lack of that I’ll be able to spend on things this week I am at least planning on not having the picking contest this week and just having our big season ending contest for the bowls. While I may change my mind, that is where I stand right now though the free newsletter will go out as normal and if anything may go out a little early this week.

With the games being limited we can expect even more line movement than usual as people tend to play heavier on the limited action instead of being able to spread things out across many games, I think we have seen this all season long with the mid week games as 3- and 4-point moves have been common, sometimes making a one time underdog a favorite. In any event, I will probably list all of the opening lines for the bowls and that will be it for the season as far as these opening lines articles go.

While I never consider these my best work, they are usually some of my most read articles of the week. It just goes to show some of those all star “think out every word” type of writers that sometimes people just want actual information, even if it isn’t breaking news. I’m glad everyone has found this series useful and I plan on continuing it next season and moving it into other sports as well as the network we are working on starts to spread its branches.

In any event, let’s look at what Vegas says is going to happen this week:

 

On Tuesday, Middle Tennessee State is +4 at Louisiana Lafayette. This is the type of game that leaves people mystified as to how anyone can know anything about these teams. Those who visit my site regularly know that we have a very well educated group of fans and we all know these teams as well as anyone, this should be a decent game, better than some of that lower tier MAC stuff we have been seeing on Tuesdays.

On Thursday, Louisville is +11 at Rutgers. I am starting to wonder how long of a leash they are going to give Steve Kragthorpe at the ‘Ville, especially after they were getting used to winning. Greg Schiano has done a nice job getting Rutgers on track as the season was setting up to be a disaster early on.

On Friday, Buffalo is +14 1/2 against Ball State in the MAC Title game held in Detroit. Ball State looks to close out the deal on their perfect regular season while Buffalo continues to try and earn respect. These are two good teams and this should be a fun one to watch.

On Saturday, Army is +11 against Navy. While many of these players will never play football again,  the rivalry that is this series is as big as the game itself and it also might be the most competitive contest between these two in years.

Pittsburgh is +2 1/2 at Connecticut. Pittsburgh is coming off of a big win as an underdog against West Virginia while UConn is coming off of a tough loss on the road at South Florida. Both of these teams need this one to improve their bowl standings and the odds makers didn’t seem to underestimate the importance of it.

South Florida is +7 at West Virginia. Last week put an exclamation point as to how disappointing of a season this has been for them as they lost against to Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl in a game they led much of the way. It should be interesting to see which West Virginia Team shows up for Senior Day as Pat White celebrates his last game in Morgantown.

Washington is +33 1/2 at Cal. Washington has yet to name a successor to Ty Willingham as Ty coaches his last game for the Huskies. As we all saw last time out that a bad season got worse in Washington as they lost to Washington State in the Apple Cup.

USC is -30 at UCLA. When we look at the 1 loss teams the Trojans have been the odd man out all season long even though their 1 loss came early and came on the road. This game means a lot to both teams as it still is one of the defining games in college football.

Arizona State is +10 1/2 at Arizona. Neither of these teams are very good and while Arizona has had a better year they haven’t been able to step it up and get wins in games against tough opponents. While ASU isn’t considered a tough opponent, rivalry games are always tough games.

Cincinnati is -7 1/2 at Hawaii. I am thinking when Cincinnati scheduled this game they thought the trip would be the highlight of their season, little did they know they would be headed to a BCS bowl game, that’s how far the Bearcats have come.

Arkansas State is +11 at Troy. I was all aboard the Troy bandwagon earlier this year until the injuries took over, maybe it’s time I get back on.

Western Kentucky is +7 at Florida International. FIU has had a string season considering they have won more games than in their entire existence. WKU has still yet to beat a D-1 team this season and has only beaten 1 in their entire history.

See the rest of the Week 15 opening lines and point spreads.

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Updated 2008 Bowl Game Predictions

First and foremost, I need to offer up a confession. The last time I spit out my bowl game predictions – they stunk. Those things reeked worse than LSU’s and Texas Tech’s defense combined. Bad. Awful. Sorry, even.

But… the past is the past. THIS time, I think I got it right. (And I don’t have any teams playing in more than one bowl!)

So… without further ado… my updated bowl game projections for games played through November 22, 2008.

Click here for the complete 2008-2009 College Football Bowl Game Schedule

BCS National Championship Game – Florida vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl – Texas vs USC
Rose Bowl – Oregon State vs Penn State
Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Utah
Orange Bowl – Boston College vs Cincinnati

New Mexico – Colorado State vs. Nevada
St. Petersburg – Rutgers vs. Memphis
Las Vegas – BYU vs. Arizona
EagleBank – Clemson vs Navy
New Orleans – Southern Miss vs Troy
Poinsettia – TCU vs Fresno State*
Hawaii – Hawaii vs Western Michigan*
Motor City – Ball State vs Minnesota
Meineke Car Care – UNC vs West Virginia
Champs Sports – Miami vs Iowa
Emerald – Maryland vs San Jose State*
Independence – LaTech* vs U La-La*
Papajohns.com – Pitt vs Arkansas State*
Alamo – Northwestern vs Oklahoma State
Humanitarian – Boise State vs Wake Forest
Texas – Northern Illinois* vs Rice
Holiday – Cal vs Missouri
Armed Forces – Air Force vs Tulsa
Sun – Oregon vs Notre Dame**
Music City – Kentucky vs VaTech
Insight – Wisconsin vs Kansas
Peach/Chick-fil-A – LSU vs Georgia Tech
Outback – Michigan State vs South Carolina
Capital One – Ohio State vs Georgia
Gator – Florida State vs Nebraska
Cotton – Texas Tech vs Ole Miss
Liberty – Houston vs Vandy
International – UConn vs Buffalo
GMAC – ECU vs Central Michigan

* At large teams shown with asterisk when partner conference aren’t projected to have enough eligible teams.
** Yeah, I know. I said ND was a lock for the Gator. They suck and so do I.

The full list of college football bowl games is online.

© www.fanblogs.com

Comment on Updated 2008 Bowl Game Predictions…

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Penn State Football: Week 10 Review and Week 11 Preview

Week 10 Review

Penn State did not play last week, as they used their bye week to get healthy and enjoy their huge victory over Ohio State last week.

In my article last week, I previewed the chances of Penn State making the national championship.  This assumes that the Nittany Lions will win their remaining three games.

Last week the Lions stood at No. 3 in the BCS standings, behind only Texas and Alabama.  Needing to only move ahead of one of these teams to be in position for the national championship, I predicted that both Texas and Alabama would lose before the end of the season

Last week Texas fulfilled their half of my prophecy by falling to Texas Tech in a thrilling night game on national television.  But something unforeseen happened in the BCS standings for this week.

The Longhorns dropped below the Nittany Lions in the newest BCS rankings, but still Penn State stood at No. 3.  This is because Texas Tech vaulted ahead of PSU up to the No. 2 ranking after their victory over Texas.

I actually began to worry about this a little bit during the first half of the game, when Texas Tech was beating Texas rather handily.  I decided that if Texas Tech won by a convincing margin over Texas, then they probably would jump Penn State in the rankings

But Texas Tech did not win by a convincing margin.  They squandered their 22-6 halftime lead and had to score a touchdown with one second remaining to win the game, at home, against the Longhorns.

So what’s the big deal?  Texas Tech is undefeated and just defeated the previous team that was ranked No. 1.  The jump is certainly well explained, but I don’t think it accurately reflects the normal movement in the BCS rankings over the years.  Teams at the very top of the rankings usually only slide down if they lose.

But I can accept rewarding Texas Tech for this week, especially since Penn State didn’t play.  My only question then is, how does Alabama remain ahead of Texas Tech?

Alabama played Arkansas State, a very mediocre small-conference team, and defeated them rather unimpressively.  The biggest argument against Penn State that I have heard is their weak schedule.  So then how is beating Arkansas State significantly better than having a bye week

In the end, none of this SHOULD matter.  Alabama should still lose a game, as I predicted last week.  Texas Tech has arguably the toughest remaining schedule in all of College Football and will have many chances to lose.  So Penn State will, in all likelihood, be able to move ahead of at least one of these two teams.

The main concern I have now is that a team with one loss could pass an undefeated Penn State team.  I have heard this mentioned several times in recent days, and I find the idea absolutely appalling.

The Big Ten may be weaker than the SEC and Big 12, but going undefeated in the Big Ten is still a very big deal.  Winning at Ohio State is a very tough task.  On top of that, Penn State played two major conference teams in their non-conference schedule.

What team could possibly claim they deserve a national title spot over Penn State with one loss

Certainly not USC.  The Trojans and Nittany Lions actually share one common opponent.  Penn State thrashed Oregon State, while USC actually lost to them.

Can’t be Florida.  Florida lost AT HOME to Mississippi, who is not one of the better teams in the SEC.  Does anyone really think that Penn State would lose to Mississippi?

How about Oklahoma?  Their only loss was a close game at Texas, who is clearly a very good team.  But keep in mind that Penn State has no losses.

The Sooners do play in the Big 12, which is perceived to be extremely good, but what about their non-conference schedule?  They beat Chattanooga, Cincinnati, and Washington.  How is this better than Penn State’s non-conference schedule of Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Syracuse, and Temple?

Okay then, Oklahoma State.  They also have only lost to Texas in a close game.  Their non-conference wins are Washington State, Houston, Missouri State, and Troy.  Is that better than Penn State’s

Well then, it has to be Texas.  Texas is currently ranked the highest of all the one-loss teams and is just coming off the No. 1 ranking before their loss last Saturday.  Their non-conference wins are Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Rice, and Arkansas.  Not much better than Penn State’s either.

Oh, and about all of their wins against the top Big 12 teams…none of them came on the road.  Penn State has impressive road victories at Wisconsin and at Ohio State, with another opportunity coming at Iowa.

Let’s make one thing very clear about the Big 12.  None of their top teams have a non-conference win to speak of, so there is no real barometer as to how well the conference compares to other conferences.  Their teams seem to be pretty even, but that doesn’t mean that they are all great.

Great offensive statistics do not equate to being a good football team.  If teams in the Big Ten made a pact to not play defense, I’m sure you would see some impressive offensive numbers there as well.

If any team with one loss jumps an undefeated Penn State to eliminate PSU from National Title convention, I hereby vow to not watch any BCS bowl game besides the one Penn State plays in.

Week 11 Preview

Penn State plays their final road game of the regular season this Saturday as they travel to Iowa to play the Hawkeyes at 3:30 pm.

Iowa has started to show a lot of promise lately in their games, mostly behind the great success of running back Shonn Greene.  The Hawkeyes are coming off of a tough loss to Illinois last week, but they are looking to pull off a major upset of Penn State this weekend.  A win for Iowa would make them bowl-eligible.

In my article from the beginning of the summer, I had predicted Penn State to win this game by a score of 24-20.  While I think Iowa may hang in with Penn State for a while, I think the Nittany Lions will be eager to make a statement to BCS pollsters in this game and will win by a larger margin.  My new prediction is for Penn State to win this game by a score of 37-10.

While both of these teams feature very talented and successful running backs, I think the key to the game for both teams lies with the quarterbacks

Penn State quarterback Daryll Clark is expected to play after suffering a concussion in the win against Ohio State on Oct. 25.  Clark has been the leader and major difference-maker for the PSU offense all season, and his ability to lead the offense will play a big part in determining how many points the Nittany Lions can put up on the board.  I expect Clark to rebound very nicely and have a big day through the air.

Receiver Jordan Norwood has been relatively quiet since a hamstring injury before the Big Ten opener, but if he is healthy, he should be ready to have a very big game.

On the other side of the ball, Penn State is very good at stopping the run.  They will focus their attention on the Hawkeye running attack, and Greene will not find the same success against the Nittany Lions as he has had in other games this season.

Iowa quarterback Ricky Stanzi has been successful at times this season but has only thrown for over 200 yards in a game once this year.  Penn State will force Stanzi to beat them, and he won’t be able to sustain a reasonable level of success for an entire game

Finally, look for PSU running back Evan Royster to also have a big day.  Penn State’s success in the passing game should help open up the running attack late in the game especially.  Royster should also have benefited from the bye week.  As this is his first full season, the starting running back may have begun to tire physically.

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Mitch’s Week 10 College Football Picks: Part Three

I have spent hours poring through information. In fact, I spent so much time working on that stuff that today is going to be a little lighter than usual in the number of games I’m picking, and tomorrow will be heavier than normal.

As everyone knows, Thursday night hasn’t been kind to me, so I’m going to defer to Jordan on that game this week as he’s been red hot, going 7-2 against the spread last week and bringing his documented season total to 59-20.

I do have an opinion on the game, and I talk about it on the video today, but I think Jordan brings up some valid points and the guy is on one heck of a roll.

I’m getting a steady stream of entries into the picking contest, and it looks like it will be like everything else around here—just bigger every week as we continue to grow. There’s still time to sign up and enter, and it’s really easy and a lot of fun.

Let’s get to some more of the games that I’m looking at.

Arkansas State +23 1/2 at Alabama (Saturday, Nov. 1, 3 EST): 4 out of 10

I think we have a serious value play that at least is worth taking a shot at. While I don’t have the most confidence I have ever had taking the points against the Tide this year like I did with Ole Miss and Kentucky, I do think the oddsmakers may have just been a bit too generous in this one.

Statistically this looks like one of those where one team has a much better offense and one team has a better defense. The key matchup here is going to come down to Arkansas State’s 12th-ranked rushing offense being able to or not being able to run on the Tide’s second-ranked rushing defense.

The Red Wolves will try to set up the run with the passing game of Corey Leonard, who had 11 TDs against just three INTs this season.

Arkansas State seems to have its way covering the spread against SEC teams, coming in at 10-4 against the number in their last 14 against the spread.

We all know of the Tide’s struggles against the number, covering just three of the last 10 times they have played a team with a winning record, 6-20-2 in their last 28 in Tuscaloosa, and a miserable 2-6 against the spread in their last eight following an against the spread win.

We have all seen the Tide inexplicably struggle against inferior competition, and while ASU is inferior on many levels, starting with depth, they are close enough to at least cover and may give the home folk a good scare.

Go here for more of Mitch’s Week 10 picks against the spread.

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