10 Top 10s For College Football: The Week Before the Bowls

Top 10 Teams

1) Utah-Still haven’t lost, does the Tide hand them one?

2) Boise- No BCS but personally I think their opponent, TCU, would beat Ohio State as well.

3) Texas-Third in the BCS, second in the Heisman voting, first in the Fiesta?

4) Oklahoma-Congrats Sam Bradford.

5) Penn State-Getting no respect.

6) USC-Based purely on their loss.

7) Texas Tech-Snubbed in the BCS and the Heisman race, will have something to prove on the second.

Florida-The only one loss team to lose at home.

9) Alabama-It may get ugly against the Utes.

10) Cincinnati-Underrated as they played the bulk of the season with their fourth string QB.

Top 10 Players of 2008

1) Tim Tebow-Got the most first place votes for the Heisman and gets mine as well.

2) Terrance Cody-The difference maker in Tuscaloosa.

3) Colt McCoy-There were times I thought he would never have another incomplete pass.

4) Rey Malalgua-Unbelievable talent.

5) Sam Bradford-The Heisman winner.

6) Janoris Jenkins-If you saw the Gators play this year you heard his name more than Tebow.

7) Shonn Greene- Single handily resurrected a program and saved a coaches job.

Ian Johnson-A lifetime achievement award.

9) Aaron Curry-One of the best in the country.

10) Knowshawn Moreno-Is there anything he doesn’t do well?

Top 10 Big Games of 2008

1) USC 35, Ohio State 3-Most people thought the title game was going to happen in September this year.

2) Alabama 41, Georgia 30-It was over by the end of the first quarter.

3) Texas 45, Oklahoma 35-Not sure what this really meant.

4) Oklahoma State 28, Missouri 23-Missouri was ranked No. 3 at the time.

5) TCU 32, BYU 7- It wasn’t as close as the score.

6) Penn State 13, Ohio State 6-How the Big Ten was won.

7) Texas Tech 39, Texas 33-Also one of the most exciting games of the year.

Oklahoma 65, Texas Tech 21- The style points put the Sooners in the title game.

9) Oregon 65, Oregon State 38-103 points later the Trojans were in the Rose Bowl.

10) Florida 31, Alabama 20-Last but not least.

10 Upsets That Shaped The 2008 Season

1) Alabama 34, Clemson 10-Clemson was a five point favorite, what a joke.

2) Oregon State 27, USC 21-The Trojans were 23 point favorites.

3) Alabama 41, Georgia 30- The Tide were getting seven in this one.

4) Mississippi 31, Florida 30-Ole Miss was 2-4 against teams with a winning record this year, this was one of the two; they were 25 point dogs in The Swamp as well.

5) Texas 45, Oklahoma 35-Sooners were favored by seven.

6) Texas Tech 39, Texas 33-Knocked the Horns from the title game.

7) Iowa 24, Penn State 23-One point separates the Lions from the title game; they were favored by eight.

Georgia Tech 45, Georgia 42-Made even the most die hard SEC fan think twice about the strength of the conference.

9) Buffalo 42, Ball State 21-We didn’t have to worry about Ball State and the BCS as the 15 point favorites went down hard.

10) East Carolina 27, Virginia Tech 22- How soon we forget.

Top 10 Things I Hope We Don’t See In 2009

1) Stoppage after every play-Every fumble, reception, Interception, etc is a tive minute stoppage, and people wonder why the game takes too long?

2) OJ Simpson-This guy’s act is so stale, let’s just leave him in his jail cell for a while.

3) The BCS- Wishful thinking.

4) Brent Musburger-Talk about stale acts.

5) Bad Rule Changes-The clock rules were a joke, see No. 1.

6) 6-6 teams going to bowl games-This is a huge part of the problem and why there is no playoff.

7) 1-AA teams on the schedule-These games shouldn’t count as one of the 12 games; we’re going to see a lot more of these as less teams from major conferences qualify for bowls.

Bad Officiating-Maybe it’s time to hold these guys accountable for changing outcomes through horrible calls.

9) Inconsistency-Watch five games at once, a penalty in one game is a no call in others, especially regarding celebrations and sideline infractions.

10) Media Spin-Take away these guys vote and poll while we’re at it too, they are clueless and obviously only support whomever their employer has an interest in.

Top 10 Things That Defined The 2008 Season

1) The Spread Offense-Will be the answer to a trivia question someday.

2) The Horse Collar- Making it illegal made it a mainstream word.

3) The Big 12- Had the game of the year almost every week.

4) Tim Tebow’s Speech-Was good to his word after the loss to Ole Miss.

5) BCS Controversy-Part of every season it seems.

6) Tommy Bowden-The fraud finally held accountable, no wonder they started winning once he was gone.

7) Weeknight Games-Not just one here and there, multiple games almost every night.

Impact Freshman-They are playing right away everywhere, leaving even faster.

9) Weather Postponed Games-Seems to be happening more and more.

10) ESPN-I don’t watch their pregame or postgame stuff but from what I’ve learned what they say seems to be more important than what happens on the field.

Top 10 Impact Freshmen of 2008

1) Julio Jones-All he was billed to be and then some.

2) Sean Spence-Hits like a Mack Truck.

3) AJ Green-Even made Matt Stafford look good from time to time.

4) Janoris Jenkins-May have been what was missing for the Gators.

5) Robert Griffin-Mr. Excitement.

6) Terrelle Pryor-Will he bring the Buckeyes a title?

7) Jacquizz Rodgers-Would anyone complain if I put him No. 1?

Kellen Moore-Didn’t look like a freshman.

9) DeAndre Brown-If he’s at a bigger school more people know who he is.

10) Marcus Forston-Going to be a force.

Top 10 Ways I Plan On Fighting College Football Withdrawal

1) Working on my book-I don’t think this will make me rich but that isn’t the point of it.

2) Expanding my site into a network of Sports Sites-Exciting stuff already in the works; NFL, MLB, CBB, NBA, NHL, etc., going to have it all.

3) Interviewing Writers-Going to need a lot of fresh content, can’t do it myself.

4) Working with my Tech Guy-I don’t know anything about this stuff but I’ve seen the mock ups for the new sites and get ready for some jaw dropping stuff.

5) Integrating more with my Blogging community-Things have happened so fast I’ve put off a lot of requests.

6) Take a vacation-I’ve been going full speed for months on end.

7) Get back in good shape-I’ve spent a lot of time sitting and eating the past few months, time to work it off.

Learn how to text message-Been on my list for years, not really that interested.

9) Clear off the TIVO-No idea how long that stuff will stay but I haven’t watched most of it.

10) Relax-Something I probably don’t do enough.

10 Things I Learned When I Converted My Newsletter To A Blog

1) Spammers are everywhere-I get a spam comment every six minutes on average; very thankful for spam blocking software.

2) College Football fans are everywhere-I read every email and comment, sometimes over 500 a week; thanks for all of them (at least  most of them).

3) Having a community is a great thing- I enjoy having hundreds of thousands of people to talk college football with.

4) There are some mean people out there-Some ignorant and spineless ones as well.

5) There are websites built on stolen content-And they don’t credit the author or the source either.

6) There are a lot of people who know a lot about college football-Pretty amazing how regional coverage really works.

7) Traffic is the most important thing-You can be a great writer or picker or whatever but if no one reads it what’s the point.

Most people prefer facts and analysis-While my 10 top 10’s is my most popular Bleacher Report series, it is far and away the least popular series as far as traffic at The College Football Place.

9) If you build it and provide quality, they will come-I went from a standing start to over 350,000 monthly visitors in five months, I thank everyone for being part of it all.

10) Short is sweet-I know my videos are too long, at least my paragraphs aren’t what they used to be; the Internet reader is a different breed.

10 Odd Things In College Football

1) Firing Tommy Tubberville-It’s been a week and I still don’t get it.

2) Hiring Gene Chizik-Not sure if he’s Head Coach material, his Iowa State team didn’t look to be going in the right direction.

3) Contract extensions for Head Coaches-It seems these guys get one right before a horrible season.

4) People who pick games without point spreads-There’s a reason there are so many college football games that have double digit point spreads, this isn’t the NFL where anyone can really beat anyone.

5) The vote of confidence-Is it really the kiss of death?

6) What is a reviewable play-The worst calls aren’t reviewable because no one could have dreamed up they would have happened.

7) No Coach accountability for players who get in trouble-Don’t they promise parents to take care of their kids?

A win against a 1-AA team counts as much as beating a ranked team-When did this happen? Teams were always penalized for these games.

9) Some conferences have championships and others don’t-Is this record padding?

10) There is less talk of a playoff than ever-Everyone seems to be afraid of upsetting someone.

Visit Mitch anytime at The College Football Place

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Updated Lines and Point Spreads For the 2008/ 2009 College Bowl Games 12/12/08

I get a lot of questions from readers and viewers about knowing when you are getting the best odds and point spreads, it isn’t a question that has a definitive answer.

While I address this question in my free ebook, Betting on College Football Made Simple, which I give away at The College Football Place, it seems that it’s an art that no one has mastered. In any event the lines have been out for nearly a week and while they have moved and are starting to settle in, there is no saying this is where they end up.

I’ll be sending out the picks for the free bowl picking contest within the next day and I apologize for mot getting them out sooner. Those who are already signed up for the regular season picking contest, you will automatically get the registration for the free bowl contest, for those of you who aren’t, you till have time.

In the mean time, here are the most current odds and point spreads and any movement they have had since they opened.

Saturday September 20, 2008

Navy +3 Vs. Wake Forest (was +3 1/2)

Fresno State -3 Vs. Colorado State (was -4)

Memphis +12 1/2 Vs. South Florida (was +14)

BYU +3 Vs. Arizona (no movement)

Sunday September 21, 2008

Southern Miss +4 1/2 Vs. Troy  (was +3)

Tuesday December 23, 2008

TCU – 2 1/2 Vs. Boise State (was pick)

Wednesday December 24, 2008

Notre Dame + 1 Vs. Hawaii (was + 2 1/2)

Friday December 26, 2008

Florida Atlantic +7 Vs. Central Michigan (was + 5 1/2)

Saturday December 27, 2008

West Virginia +1 Vs. North Carolina (was pick)

Wisconsin +4 1/2 Vs. Florida State (was +5 1/2)

Miami +7 Vs. Cal (was + 7 1/2)

Sunday December 28, 2008

Northern Illinois – 1 1/2 Vs. Louisiana Tech (was -3)

Monday December 29, 2008

NC State +7 Vs. Rutgers (no move)

Northwestern +13 Vs. Missouri (was 14 1/2)

Tuesday December 30, 2008

Nevada +1 1/2 Vs. Maryland (was +1)

Western Michigan +3 Vs. Rice (was +2)

Oregon +3 Vs. Oklahoma State (no movement)

Wednesday December 31, 2008

Air Force + 2 1/2 Vs. Houston (was +2)

Pittsburgh +3 Vs. Oregon State (no movement)

Boston College – 3 1/2 Vs. Vandy (was -4)

Minnesota +11 Vs. Kansas (was +8 1/2)

LSU + 5 Vs. Georgia Tech ( was +2 1/2)

Thursday January 1, 2009

Iowa is -3 1 /2 Vs. South Carolina (was -3)

See the rest of the current lines and point spreads for the 2008/2009 bowls

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Jim Delany talks Big Ten bowls, Part I

Posted by ESPN.com’s Adam Rittenberg

Jim Delany has seen the point spreads, and he knows the odds are against his league this postseason. The Big Ten commissioner also doesn’t downplay the significance of the seven bowls that will feature Big Ten teams (Iowa is the only Big Ten squad favored to win). 

After going 0-4 in BCS games the last two seasons, the Big Ten has taken its lumps nationally. Ohio State’s selection to the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl elicited grumbling from those who were thoroughly unentertained by the Buckeyes in the last two BCS title games. But as Delany knows, public perception can change quickly, and Big Ten victories in the Rose and Fiesta bowls could put the league back among the nation’s best.

I caught up with Delany this afternoon as he was driving from New York to New Jersey to visit family. Here’s the first of my two-part interview with the Big Ten commissioner.

What was your initial reaction when the Big Ten bowl pairings were announced?

Jim Delany: We’re fortunate that everybody that’s bowl eligible has a good game, a challenging game. The matchups are great. I noticed we’re not favored to win many, but that’s sort of the nature of what we do. You’ve got to play the best, whether it’s Southern Cal or the SEC or the best in the BCS. So it will be a challenging schedule but one that we could have some success. But it’s big stage, big risk, big reward. If we do well, we’ll get due credit. If not, we’ll probably take some criticism because we’ve had a couple years where we haven’t performed well on the big stage. If we do do well, that will go a long way. A few years, we were 8-5 in the BCS and we were leading the way. And after going 0-4, we’re in a different situation. The only thing that’s going to cure that is winning games.

You mention high risk, high reward. Is this a critical bowl season for the Big Ten?

JD: I think it is, more than normal. If you’re on a four-game winning streak, nobody really mentions much. And when you’re not, it’s mentioned often.

For a team like Ohio State, do you see this as a big opportunity for the Buckeyes after being criticized heavily the last couple years?

JD: They’re kind of in line with the conference because they won a national championship in 2002, they won two Fiesta Bowls, they handily took care of Kansas State and Notre Dame. They were swimming along like we were as a conference, which was more than holding our own at the top of the heap from 2000-05. The last two years have been tough for us. It’s not we haven’t won games. We have won big games. But at the highest level, we haven’t been as competitive as the coaches want, the players want and the fans want. So whenever you’re not competing at the level you want to, all you can do is go compete harder [laughs]. There’s nothing else you can do. You don’t stop competing.

As someone who covered the league, I felt that this fall, Penn State in some ways paid the price for the league’s BCS failures the last couple years in terms of getting national respect, BCS rankings, et cetera. How did you view that situation?

JD: I don’t know, I’m sure there’s some spillover, but it would have been interesting to see how it would have played out [had Penn State gone undefeated]. They were clearly third [in the BCS standings]. I would say that because we haven’t won big the last two years, there are certain impacts on other teams. If you look at Penn State, they’ve won three bowl games in a row. They defeated Oregon State handily. They had a good, competitive game with Ohio State. You’d have to ask the people who are voting whether or not there’s spillover. Maybe they just thought they were the eighth-best team in the country. 

Does the league’s bowl performance shape the next season going into it, as far as hype? 

JD: It does because voters, especially in the Coaches’ Poll — not so much in the Harris Poll because it comes out [five] weeks into the season — there’s no doubt that the teams that win national championships, if you looked at Michigan in ‘97 or Ohio State, any of those polls, when you have a poll that occurs before you play a game, what else do you have but past performance? So we’ve got four, five games at the top of our ledger. The coaches get it, fans get it, players get it. The only people who walk away feeling good are the guys who win. The other guys just go back and work harder and compete harder.

A lot of people saw this as a transition year for Michigan, but from a league perspective, how important is it for Michigan to be good, just for the way the league is looked at nationally?

JD: They’ve been to 33 straight bowl games. They’ve won x number of football games, a very winning program. So there is a level of measurement [for the league], but when I look around the country during that timeframe, I’ve seen USC way down. It doesn’t mean the Pac-10 couldn’t execute. I’ve seen Oklahoma way down, Texas way down, Notre Dame way down, Alabama way down, Florida way down. So if you’re a reasonable person looking at the Big Ten or any of those conference and you see a program like Michigan that has never been down — they’ve had one season since they lost to BYU in ‘84 where they won fewer than eight games — I think they’ll bounce back. It’s a great program, great tradition, great history. They lost four or five players to the NFL off the offensive side, changed systems. They had transfers. I expect [improvement] if not next year, the following year. I don’t expect Michigan to be without players, and I know that [Rich] Rodriguez is a very good football coach. He’s proven that over a decade. I don’t expect [the struggles] to be long lived.

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Opening Lines and Point Spreads For All 2008 and 2009 Bowl Games

The lines are out for the college bowl games for this season.

While the lines on the BCS games were released almost immediately, it apparently took some time to get it together for the remaining games. I’m not going to go into my usual banter here but rather delve right into the opening lines though I expect some major fluctuation in the next few days which of course we’ll keep our eye on.

On 12/20/08, in The Eagle Bank Bowl at RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C. Navy is + 3 1/2 Vs. Wake Forest.

Also on 12/20 is The New Mexico Bowl In Albuquerque, where Fresno State is -4 Vs. Colorado State.

The 3rd 12/20 game is The magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl where Memphis is +14 Vs. South Florida.

The last game on 12/20 features BYU +3 Vs. Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium.

In The R+L Carriers Bowl on 12/21 in New Orleans, Troy is -3 Vs. Southern Mississippi.

On 12/21 in The Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, Boise and TCU is a pick.

The Sheraton Hawaii Bowl is on 12/24 and Notre Dame is +1 1/2 Vs. Hawaii.

On 12/26 in The Motor City Bowl, Florida Atlantic is +5 1/2 Vs. Central Michigan.

On 12/27, in The Meineke Car Care Bowl in Charlotte, NC, West Virginia and North Carolina is a pick.

Also on 12/27, The Champs Sports Bowl has Wisconsin +5 1/2 against Florida State.

The third game on 12/27 has Cal -7 1/2 Vs. Miami(Fl) in The Emerald Bowl.

On 12/28, The Independence Bowl features Northern Illinois -3 against Louisiana Tech.

On 12/29 in The Papa Johns.com Bowl, North Carolina State is +7 against Rutgers.

Also on 12/29, The Valero Alamo Bowl has Northwestern +14 1/2 against Missouri.

On 12/30 in The Humanitarian Bowl, Nevada and Maryland is a pick.

In The Texas Bowl on 12/30, Western Michigan is +2 against Rice.

Also on 12/20, The Holiday Bowl has Oregon +3 against Oklahoma State.

On 12/31, The Armed Forces Bowl features Air Force +2 against Houston.

The second game on 12/31, The Sun Bowl, has Pittsburgh +3 against Oregon State.

See the rest of the 2008/2009 College Football opening lines and point spreads for all of the Bowl Games.

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College Football Week 15: Early Lines and Point Spreads

It’s hard to believe we are 15 weeks into the college football season and nothing has been decided as far as most of the bowls and even the national title picture.

While we don’t have anything like a full schedule of games, we have some nice quality and some real meaningful ones that should keep everyone glued to their TV sets. I’ll be in Las Vegas during the latter part of the week for the Manny Pacquiao-Oscar De La Hoya fight but as has been the case in the past, things here should go pretty smoothly (fingers crossed).

Because of the limited schedule and because of the time or lack of that I’ll be able to spend on things this week I am at least planning on not having the picking contest this week and just having our big season ending contest for the bowls. While I may change my mind, that is where I stand right now though the free newsletter will go out as normal and if anything may go out a little early this week.

With the games being limited we can expect even more line movement than usual as people tend to play heavier on the limited action instead of being able to spread things out across many games, I think we have seen this all season long with the mid week games as 3- and 4-point moves have been common, sometimes making a one time underdog a favorite. In any event, I will probably list all of the opening lines for the bowls and that will be it for the season as far as these opening lines articles go.

While I never consider these my best work, they are usually some of my most read articles of the week. It just goes to show some of those all star “think out every word” type of writers that sometimes people just want actual information, even if it isn’t breaking news. I’m glad everyone has found this series useful and I plan on continuing it next season and moving it into other sports as well as the network we are working on starts to spread its branches.

In any event, let’s look at what Vegas says is going to happen this week:

 

On Tuesday, Middle Tennessee State is +4 at Louisiana Lafayette. This is the type of game that leaves people mystified as to how anyone can know anything about these teams. Those who visit my site regularly know that we have a very well educated group of fans and we all know these teams as well as anyone, this should be a decent game, better than some of that lower tier MAC stuff we have been seeing on Tuesdays.

On Thursday, Louisville is +11 at Rutgers. I am starting to wonder how long of a leash they are going to give Steve Kragthorpe at the ‘Ville, especially after they were getting used to winning. Greg Schiano has done a nice job getting Rutgers on track as the season was setting up to be a disaster early on.

On Friday, Buffalo is +14 1/2 against Ball State in the MAC Title game held in Detroit. Ball State looks to close out the deal on their perfect regular season while Buffalo continues to try and earn respect. These are two good teams and this should be a fun one to watch.

On Saturday, Army is +11 against Navy. While many of these players will never play football again,  the rivalry that is this series is as big as the game itself and it also might be the most competitive contest between these two in years.

Pittsburgh is +2 1/2 at Connecticut. Pittsburgh is coming off of a big win as an underdog against West Virginia while UConn is coming off of a tough loss on the road at South Florida. Both of these teams need this one to improve their bowl standings and the odds makers didn’t seem to underestimate the importance of it.

South Florida is +7 at West Virginia. Last week put an exclamation point as to how disappointing of a season this has been for them as they lost against to Pittsburgh in the Backyard Brawl in a game they led much of the way. It should be interesting to see which West Virginia Team shows up for Senior Day as Pat White celebrates his last game in Morgantown.

Washington is +33 1/2 at Cal. Washington has yet to name a successor to Ty Willingham as Ty coaches his last game for the Huskies. As we all saw last time out that a bad season got worse in Washington as they lost to Washington State in the Apple Cup.

USC is -30 at UCLA. When we look at the 1 loss teams the Trojans have been the odd man out all season long even though their 1 loss came early and came on the road. This game means a lot to both teams as it still is one of the defining games in college football.

Arizona State is +10 1/2 at Arizona. Neither of these teams are very good and while Arizona has had a better year they haven’t been able to step it up and get wins in games against tough opponents. While ASU isn’t considered a tough opponent, rivalry games are always tough games.

Cincinnati is -7 1/2 at Hawaii. I am thinking when Cincinnati scheduled this game they thought the trip would be the highlight of their season, little did they know they would be headed to a BCS bowl game, that’s how far the Bearcats have come.

Arkansas State is +11 at Troy. I was all aboard the Troy bandwagon earlier this year until the injuries took over, maybe it’s time I get back on.

Western Kentucky is +7 at Florida International. FIU has had a string season considering they have won more games than in their entire existence. WKU has still yet to beat a D-1 team this season and has only beaten 1 in their entire history.

See the rest of the Week 15 opening lines and point spreads.

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College Football Notes and Line Moves: Week 14

Even with the season winding down and a lot of the week 14 games already played, we still have a lot of meaningful football to be played in the next few hours, and the lines are moving.

I’ll be in the chat room for a lot of the day again and, of course, all of mine and Jordan’s free picks are still available under the picks tab. You still have time to sign up for the free newsletter which has been sent out this week.

If you sign up late and want a copy of this week’s letter, just send me an email by just hitting reply to the confirmation of the sign up.

Back to today’s games; the dogs were biting yesterday, especially with the points and I don’t think it stops there. Today, we have games that transcend the actual game on the field.

We’re talking about rivalries that run generations deep. With that being said, the lines are still moving like they are every week and we’re going to take a look at them. Because we have a smaller group of games to work with, I’ll try and add some more insight and maybe touch on a few games I didn’t pick this week.

Georgia Tech is now +7 1/2 at Georgia after opening at +9 1/2 in a game they simply call “Clean, Old Fashioned Hate.” These teams and these fan bases do not like each other.

While the Dawgs have dominated the series of late, what has shown on the final scoreboard hasn’t been a very good indication of what has transpired on the field. I took the Yellow Jackets getting more than this, but I still like them getting more than a TD, a number Georgia has had a hard time covering.

Miami is -2 at NC State after opening at -1. Which Hurricanes team and which Wolfpack teams show up? I wouldn’t even venture a guess on this one but it appears people have some faith in the Hurricanes.

South Carolina is pick at Clemson after opening at +1 1/2. Clemson is trying to salvage their season while South Carolina has a legitimate shot at a New Year’s Day Bowl; it should be a heck of a battle in the Palmetto State.

Syracuse is +21 at Cincinnati after opening at +22. It’s tough to imagine that people are thinking the Orange may play some inspired football in the Queen City today, but apparently that’s where the money is going; I’m putting mine elsewhere though.

Kansas is +16 at Missouri after opening at +13. While men talk about Mizzou as flying under the radar, they appear to have gotten a lot of people’s attention in this one. Kansas has been inconsistent, but is still putting up points. The question is can they put up enough?

Nevada is -5 at Louisiana Tech after opening at -3 1/2. This is a battle of two good teams and I think we may be seeing on residual effects of playing competitively on the Wolfpack; they may not come out strong. We will find out soon enough.

Southern Mississippi is -15 1/2 at SMU after opening at -13 1/2. I’m not sure if people are thinking the Eagles are this good or if SMU is this bad, probably a lot of both.

Florida is -17 at Florida State after opening at -15. I have gone up and down this game all week long and feature it on today’s early video. I think this is way too many points for a visitor at Doak Campbell Stadium, especially a rival.

See the rest of week 14’s college football point spread and line moves

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College Football Week 14: Early Lines and Point Spreads

It was another week of picking winner after winner against the spread all over the site, and we’re ready for more of the same this week.

I went 13-5 against the spread on Saturday, including 7-2 in games I gave a confidence rating of 7 or higher to. Jordan turned in another winning week, which has become just a matter of course for him, and the free newsletter picks were a perfect 3-for-3 against the spread.

In the free picking contest it was a smashing week with the best performances overall of the year and the highest scores across the board. This week’s winner was Mayday, who went a crushing 12-3 against the spread and racked up a record 105 confidence points. Many were close to that record, but Mayday just was dialed in on what games he thought were the easiest to pick. We’ll get in touch with him shortly and we hope he has more to add as to how he got it done.

Personally, I can say I got it done using the same methods I used all season and have been using for years, a ton of number crunching and research. I also used all of the resources available, including the forums and chat room, where I have found the most knowledgeable group of college football fans.

What has happened in our community is we have fans from all over, and each has a specialty and it has really narrowed things down and made life much easier; this is going to really be something to see in years to come.

While the future looks exciting, so do this week’s games. Before I go on much further and the lines start to move, here are the opening lines for Week 14 of college football.

 

The week starts with a double-header on Tuesday with Western Michigan +10 1/2 at Ball State and Navy +3 at Northern Illinois. Both of these games are on TV and we have seen plenty of all of these teams this season.

On Thanksgiving night, Texas A&M is +33 1/2 at Texas. These are just two teams in two different places.

As we move into Friday, we have a whole day full of action.

West Virginia is -3 at Pittsburgh for The Backyard Brawl. Last year Pitt won outright as 29 point underdogs.

Ohio is +1 at Miami (OH). Both of these teams would love to win this one for their fans.

Mississippi State is +13 at Mississippi in the Egg Bowl. The trophy won’t come easy this year.

Akron is +3 at Temple. Temple has been great against the spread while it hasn’t meant outright wins.

UTEP is +5 at East Carolina. UTEP is closing well while ECU started well.

Central Michigan is -10 1/2 at Eastern Michigan. This looks very low but they usually are in rivalries.

Kent is +10 at Buffalo. Buffalo won in a major comeback on the road last week.

LSU is -4 at Arkansas. While neither of these teams are contending for a title, they both play hard.

Bowling Green is -3 at Toledo. Yet another game with a road favorite.

Colorado is +15 at Nebraska. This game traditionally has one team scoring a bunch.

Fresno State is +19 at Boise. Boise needs this one to clinch a perfect regular season.

UCLA is +10 at Arizona State. Both of these teams are having season they’ll want to forget soon.

As we move into Saturday, Miami is -1 1/2 at NC State. Miami looks to rebound while NC State looks to ride the momentum.

Vanderbilt is +3 1/2 at Wake Forest. Both of these teams wish they could only finish the season like they started it.

Maryland is +7 at Boston College. If BC wins they go to the ACC Championship game, again.

 

See the rest of the week 14 college football odds and point spreads.

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Michigan State-Penn State: Underwhelmed With Excitement

So it comes to this. The night before what could be Michigan State’s biggest win in…a long time. I’ve had two weeks to prepare for it, two weeks to write something about it, and two weeks to get really jacked up about it.

Yet, I have nothing.

Rather than eagerly anticipate the possibility of sharing the first Big Ten title in 18 years, and getting that first game of the season insomnia the night before, I am instead pre-resolved to losing this game and moving on to finish with a nice bowl game.

The first problem is that I hate—HATE—road games. Yelling at a television just doesn’t get it done for me. I’d be fired up and ready for a game against Florida International if I had my tickets and a tailgate lined up.

But mostly, I have not yet been wrong on a Friday night before a game. When I think they’ll win, they win. When I know they’ll lose, they lose. There’s nothing psychic about this, since guessing based on the pre-game point spreads would have gotten anyone the same result.

If you go back to May, in one of my very first posts, you’ll see the whole season predicted thus far to within one game of actual results. The only one I got wrong was Wisconsin, and I had moved that one over to the “win” side of the ledger weeks before the game started.

Otherwise, there was no reason to alter my May prediction during any other game this season. And, as noted, by the night before I was already guessing the outcome correctly in all cases.

In May, I expected to lose to Penn State…and badly. I still do.

Again, there’s nothing special about my predictive powers. I blame Mark Dantonio for turning this into a delightfully boring team that gives 110 percent every game. They are predictably good, but not (yet) predictably great, so their 110 percent isn’t going to measure up against some others (i.e. Cal, Ohio State, and Penn State).

I am thus a victim of trusting my own realistic expectations. I think that I’ve already seen the end of this game.

Michigan State doesn’t have what it takes to win a share of the Big Ten title this year. But what might keep me awake tonight is thinking that they could very well be the favorite to take it outright next year. A clear majority of the starters will return from a team that (if am joyously wrong) could win 11 games this season.

In 21 years as the biggest of Spartan fans, I’ve never been as ill-prepared for an earthshaking upset as I am right now. And paradoxically, I’ve never been so hopeful about their future.

What a great season this has been. I can’t believe it’s not over yet.

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The Big Game is Still Big This Weekend

The Michigan Wolverines (3-8, 2-5) have struggled mightily in new head coach Rich Rodriguez’s first year.

They have lost eight times, which is the most in school history, snapped a streak of 38 straight bowl games, suffered their first losing season since 1967, and to add insult to injury, lost to No. 15 Michigan State (9-2, 6-1) at home for the first time since 1990.

The transition into the Rich Rodriguez era has been rough. While a rocky year was expected, no one anticipated it would be this bad for Michigan.

The offense has been pitiful, averaging a mere 299.2 yards per game, which is dead last in the Big Ten. They are also tied for ninth in the Big Ten in scoring, with an average of only 21.5 points per game. 

Quarterbacks Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan have not been able to execute Rodriguez’s spread offense. At times, both quarterbacks have had a tendency to be inaccurate and miss open receivers. 

YouTube legend Sam McGuffie has struggled in his freshman year with injury problems. Also true freshman wide receiver Darryl Stonum, out of Sugarland, Texas, has failed to live up to his billing this year, with only 13 catches for just 143 yards and one touchdown.

However much of these offensive struggles were expected in Rodriguez’s first year.

The defense, which returned seven starters from last year’s team was expected to be good enough to give Michigan chances to win games. However, that has not been the case.

The secondary has been terrible this season. The Wolverines are 10th in the Big Ten in pass defense, allowing 234.2 yards per game and just over seven yards per catch.

If you thought it couldn’t get any worse, then think again. Michigan will have to travel to Columbus this weekend to take on their most hated rival, Ohio State (9-2, 6-1). The Buckeyes are ranked 10th in the BCS, and both of their losses were to opponents ranked inside the top three, USC and Penn State.

Highly touted true freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor has been a huge part of the Buckeye offense.

Pryor took over for the struggling senior starter Todd Boeckman after their loss to USC. Since then, he has thrown for 1125 yards, 10 touchdowns, only three interceptions, and has completed 64.7 percent if his passes for a passer rating of 152.2.

Pryor’s strong suit, however, is running the football. He has a total of 560 rushing yards, six touchdowns, and averages 4.8 yards per carry.

Then there’s Chris “Beanie” Wells, who is currently sixth in the Big Ten in rushing with 957 yards and has seven touchdowns.

A surprising stat is that the Buckeyes are 10th in the Big Ten in total offense. So how have they won nine games this year?

They have a great defense with standout seniors in linebacker James Laurinaitis and cornerback Malcom Jenkins. The Buckeyes rank second in the conference in pass defense and fourth in the conference against the run.

So Michigan fans have to be asking themselves: Is there anyway to salvage this season? Can Michigan beat Ohio State in Columbus and avoid losing to the Buckeyes for a record fifth consecutive time?

The answer is yes. While Michigan may not stack up to the Buckeyes on paper, they certainly have history on their side. As mentioned before, Ohio State has never beaten Michigan five times in a row.

More good news for Rodriguez is that the only coach in Michigan history to lose to Ohio State in his first year was Elton Wieman way back in 1927.

This game is still very important to both teams. Ohio State needs to avoid the upset in order to give themselves a chance to earn a Rose Bowl bid with a Penn State loss. They also have a good chance at an at-large BCS bid.

For Michigan, this win might not get them to the Rose Bowl, or any bowl for that matter. But for the Wolverines it would mean redemption.

It would mean they can salvage something from a clearly lost season and abysmal start to Rich Rodriguez’s era at Michigan. It would end the Buckeyes’ dominance of the Wolverines, for one year anyway.

This win could restore some pride to Michigan’s football team and give fans a hope of the great things that are expected to come in Rodriguez’s years at Michigan.

On a side note, the point spread for this weekend’s game is 19 points. This equals the largest point margin in the history of the rivalry.

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Ohio State-Michigan: Wolverines Look to Prevent Fifth Straight Buckeye Victory

Before I get started with this week’s preview, congratulations are in order. Give some props to the Michigan basketball team for beating the number four-ranked UCLA Bruins Thursday night by a score of 55-52 at Madison Square Garden.

I could not believe my eyes and was ecstatic afterwards. Hey Sparties, still want to wait for basketball season? I can’t wait for Feb. 10 at Crisler Arena when Michigan plays MSU.

On with the preview.

 

Michigan Wolverines (3-8, 2-5) at Ohio State Buckeyes (9-2, 6-1)

Noon, Saturday at Ohio Stadium

Line: Ohio State -20.5

Weather: High of 36 degrees with partly cloudy skies

Well, here it is, folks—the 105th meeting between the University of Michigan and Ohio State University.

The 20.5-point spread is the largest in the history of “The Game,” and there’s a good chance the Buckeyes will cover given how bad Michigan has been this season.

It all depends on which Michigan team shows up Saturday. Are we going to get the Wolverines from the Minnesota game that played solid football for four quarters, or the team that has bombed against the rest of the Big Ten?

How about the team that played against Purdue, where just the offense showed up and the defense decided to lay an egg? Or the teams that played good for one quarter of a game against Wisconsin and Illinois?

All I know is if the Wolverines and the 16 seniors on this team want to beat Ohio State for the first time since 2003, they better show up and hit on all cylinders for a full 60 minutes.

Michigan has never lost five straight against the Buckeyes, but this has been a season of dreadful firsts for the Wolverines, so if this is the year it happens, I won’t be much surprised.

However, if Michigan should pull out the victory on Saturday, I will be elated and proceed to claim it the biggest upset in the history of the series.

It’s going to be a giant uphill battle, though, and I don’t see giving Michigan much of a chance.

 

Michigan Pass Offense vs. Ohio State Pass Defense

All Michigan fans can do is hope that Nick Sheridan brings his stallion and sword prepared to be knighted again instead of his usual white flag signaling surrender.

He’s got the 13th-ranked pass defense in the country to deal with, which has 14 interceptions, led by Kurt Coleman’s four and Malcolm Jenkins’s three.

Jenkins also has eight pass breakups, so I would advise against throwing to his side of the field altogether.

Michigan’s offensive line did pretty well against Northwestern last week. The Wildcats had a ton of sacks entering that game but only got one on the Wolverines.

I would normally feel all right about Michigan’s ability to pick up the pass rush, but Steve Schilling might not play after spraining his knee in practice this week.

Ohio State has a decent pass rush, accumulating 21 sacks this season.

In order to compensate, Martavious Odoms, Darryl Stonum, and Kevin Koger are all going to have to step up their game and get open quicker.

Stonum has been having a rough time with routes, and Odoms has a propensity to drop the ball, being the freshmen that they are.

Marcus Freeman and James Laurinaitis will most likely get to Sheridan before he can even get to his second read, which takes long enough as it is.

Advantage: Ohio State

 

Michigan Rush Offense vs. Ohio State Rush Defense

Brandon Minor is back this week, and after Carlos Brown returned from oblivion last week, Michigan should have a solid one-two punch this week.

The offensive line is run blocking better and better each week, and Brown and Minor should have some good lanes to run through—although those lanes might get filled up by the nation’s 26th-ranked run defense that only gives up 3.7 yards per carry.

The Buckeyes have an astonishing 54 tackles for loss, led by Freeman’s 6.5 and Laurinaitis’s 4.5.

Speed kills, though, and Minor and Brown have shown a lot of speed this season. Minor is bound to break a long run or two, while Brown almost did a couple times last week.

Advantage: Michigan (barely)

Ohio State Pass Offense vs. Michigan Pass Defense

Terrelle Pryor is going to be a nightmare to deal with for the Michigan defense. He doesn’t throw a lot, but when he has, it’s been effective.

Pryor has a 152.16 efficiency rating and has 10 touchdowns and just three interceptions.

While he’s lethal on the ground, he can be just as lethal if not more through the air.

Brian Robiskie is his favorite target (seven touchdowns), and Brian Hartline is averaging over 20 yards per catch.

Michigan’s pass defense has been a complete disaster this season, with Stevie Brown, Charles Stewart, and Brandon Harrison leaving the middle of the field wide open.

The Wolverines’ secondary ranks 89th in the country and gives up over 230 yards per game through the air.

Advantage: Ohio State

 

Ohio State Rush Offense vs. Michigan Rush Defense

This is the key matchup in the game if both teams want to be successful.

If Ohio State has a big day on the ground, expect another Buckeye victory, but if Michigan can slow down Beanie Wells and Pryor, the Wolverines will have a chance.

The Buckeyes rank 29th in the country, averaging 187 yards per game, with Wells rushing for 119.6 per game and 5.4 per carry.

He killed Michigan singlehandedly last year with 222 yards and the only two touchdowns at the Big House.

Now he has Pryor to aid him once in a while, who gets 50.9 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton are going to be crucial in slowing down Wells and keeping Pryor contained.

Ezeh and Mouton need to step up and show that they can be leaders on this team next season, and this is their audition.

Seniors Terrance Taylor, Will Johnson, and Tim Jamison are just itching to get their first victory against OSU.

If the defensive line can slow down Wells, and Ezeh and Mouton keep Pryor contained, Michigan can win this game.

Advantage: Even

 

Special Teams

Ohio State has two punt returns for touchdowns this season, but don’t expect them to get one this weekend with Zoltan “Space Lord Emperor of the Universe” Mesko kicking the ball into the upper atmosphere.

Neither team’s field goal kicker is dead-on accurate either.

Advantage: Even

 

Final Thoughts

The media has been blowing up stories about just how much Rich Rodriguez knows about this rivalry.

We already know Sweater Vest’s opinion and passion for this game. It’s the only big game he can win (at least since the 2002 championship game).

Rich Rod has been very open with the media, a lot more so than Lloyd Carr ever was, but I think he’s been holding something back.

There’s something he hasn’t told us yet.

Bo Schembechler said after the historic 1969 win that not even his players knew it, but every day they were practicing something for the Ohio State game.

Maybe RichRod has been doing the same and has a trick or two up his sleeves.

I still don’t think it’ll matter, but maybe it’ll help.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Michigan 13

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