Updated Lines and Point Spreads For the 2008/ 2009 College Bowl Games 12/12/08

I get a lot of questions from readers and viewers about knowing when you are getting the best odds and point spreads, it isn’t a question that has a definitive answer.

While I address this question in my free ebook, Betting on College Football Made Simple, which I give away at The College Football Place, it seems that it’s an art that no one has mastered. In any event the lines have been out for nearly a week and while they have moved and are starting to settle in, there is no saying this is where they end up.

I’ll be sending out the picks for the free bowl picking contest within the next day and I apologize for mot getting them out sooner. Those who are already signed up for the regular season picking contest, you will automatically get the registration for the free bowl contest, for those of you who aren’t, you till have time.

In the mean time, here are the most current odds and point spreads and any movement they have had since they opened.

Saturday September 20, 2008

Navy +3 Vs. Wake Forest (was +3 1/2)

Fresno State -3 Vs. Colorado State (was -4)

Memphis +12 1/2 Vs. South Florida (was +14)

BYU +3 Vs. Arizona (no movement)

Sunday September 21, 2008

Southern Miss +4 1/2 Vs. Troy  (was +3)

Tuesday December 23, 2008

TCU – 2 1/2 Vs. Boise State (was pick)

Wednesday December 24, 2008

Notre Dame + 1 Vs. Hawaii (was + 2 1/2)

Friday December 26, 2008

Florida Atlantic +7 Vs. Central Michigan (was + 5 1/2)

Saturday December 27, 2008

West Virginia +1 Vs. North Carolina (was pick)

Wisconsin +4 1/2 Vs. Florida State (was +5 1/2)

Miami +7 Vs. Cal (was + 7 1/2)

Sunday December 28, 2008

Northern Illinois – 1 1/2 Vs. Louisiana Tech (was -3)

Monday December 29, 2008

NC State +7 Vs. Rutgers (no move)

Northwestern +13 Vs. Missouri (was 14 1/2)

Tuesday December 30, 2008

Nevada +1 1/2 Vs. Maryland (was +1)

Western Michigan +3 Vs. Rice (was +2)

Oregon +3 Vs. Oklahoma State (no movement)

Wednesday December 31, 2008

Air Force + 2 1/2 Vs. Houston (was +2)

Pittsburgh +3 Vs. Oregon State (no movement)

Boston College – 3 1/2 Vs. Vandy (was -4)

Minnesota +11 Vs. Kansas (was +8 1/2)

LSU + 5 Vs. Georgia Tech ( was +2 1/2)

Thursday January 1, 2009

Iowa is -3 1 /2 Vs. South Carolina (was -3)

See the rest of the current lines and point spreads for the 2008/2009 bowls

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College Football Bowls 2008/2009: Mitch’s First Early Leans

As I look around the Internet, I see a lot of people making their bowl picks and BCS Bowl picks. I was wondering if I could borrow their crystal ball.

Fortunately or unfortunately, I know my readers and viewers of my videos expect a lot more from me than looking at a lineup of games and just saying who I think will win or cover. They want me to sit down and do the homework and show them why I am leaning one way or another.

While I’m not right all the time, and some weeks not right much of the time, most weeks I’ve done pretty well in the picking department, and I hope my analysis has been spot-on all the time. Regardless, I know that at The College Football Place, over 350,000 people a month stop by, and a good bulk of them really know their college football.

While not everyone is brave enough to enter my free picking contest, those that do as a unit have a much higher winning percentage than just about any expert out there. That in itself is a testament to the community we have formed.

I am hoping that tonight or possibly today I’ll have a chance to send out the entries for the free bowl picking contest for those already signed up. For those not signed up yet, you have until the games kick off on Dec. 20. It’s easy, free, and we even have prizes.

So with no picks in place, it doesn’t mean I have come up with any opinions or leans as they are referred to, as I have several—some are stronger than others. While just because I’m leaning one way or another is no guarantee that is how my final pick ends up, it’s generally a good indication.

Please keep in mind though that a few weeks ago in the forum I was leaning Alabama, and then when I did my homework and wrote up the pick, I ended up taking Florida. While it’s rare, it happens, but when it does you are always given plenty of notice to move things around.

In any event, here are a few games I’m leaning one way or another and my reasoning. Please feel free to comment or hit the forum, as I’ve found when we do this together, the more we are all in agreement the better our record is. Our poll was well over 70 percent this season, probably North of 80 percent against the spread.

Here are a few games I’ve been looking at already and some early leans.

Texas Tech is a mere -5 1/2 against Ole Miss, dropping from the 7-7 1/2 range. I guess beating Florida at Florida several months ago means that much to Ole Miss, but it doesn’t get held against the Gators too much?

I have yet to figure this one out, but the big argument and what is helping us out having to lay less points is people are under the impression that Ole Miss is a good team. This just in: They aren’t. Ole Miss ranks 62nd in the country against the pass, and that’s 11th in the SEC for those keeping score of SEC stats.

Anyone still like the Rebels’ chances against Graham Harrell and company? Be my guest to step up to the betting window and knock the line down even further, because the rest of us are laughing at you.

Ole Miss beat a total of three bowl teams this year: the aforementioned Florida, LSU, and Memphis. Memphis was 6-6 with one of those coming against a I-AA opponent, and LSU was 7-5 with one win coming against a I-AA opponent. Texas Tech lost one game total in a brutal Big 12 this year. I think Houston Nutt’s boys may be in over their heads by a ton in this mismatch.

Boston College is -3 against Vandy. This line has moved from -4. For those who didn’t watch the second half of the season this year, Vandy lost six of their last seven games and barely made it to a bowl game. They even lost to Tennessee, which wasn’t an easy thing to do this year—just ask the Wyoming Cowboys and their 120th-ranked defense.

In any event, BC went 9-4 and had won four straight before losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC championship. Many feel that if BC didn’t suffer the late season injuries they had, they probably would have gone to a BCS Bowl game. Let me rephrase this so you understand it better: Their QB got knocked out and they played a guy with no experience and still managed some wins. BC with preparation in this one should easily dominate.

Also, for those looking at the conference matchup alone, the ACC got the best of the SEC this year, especially late in the season. Did I mention Vandy has the 104th-ranked offense and BC has the 18th-ranked defense? This may get ugly.

See the rest of Mitch’s First leans of the 2008/2009 college bowl season.

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The Final Coaches Poll: Wheel Of Politics!

Ah, yes. The final coaches poll has been made public, and as usual, there are some truly noteworthy voting practices amongst our fair and balanced coaches. Some take this seriously, some cast their votes with reckless abandon, and some prove they just need a lobotomy.

It’s time to play “Who’s the biggest Homer?”

Here is the actual final poll, so you can see how the teams ended up, and then compare how some esteemed and knowledgeable coaches voted versus their brethren.

1. Oklahoma

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. Alabama/USC (tie)

6. Penn State

7. Utah

8. Texas tech

9. Boise State

10. Ohio State

11. TCU

12. Cincy

13. Oregon

14. Oklahoma State

15. Georgia Tech

16. BYU

17. Georgia

18. Michigan State

19. Va Tech

20. Northwestern

21. Pitt

22. Ball State

23. Mizzou

24. Ole Miss

25. Oregon State

 

First up is Urban Meyer, coach of the Florida Gators. Just how unbiased was he?

He voted Florida No. 1, Alabama No. 3, Utah (his former team) No. 4, USC No. 6, BYU No. 20, Georgia No. 21, and the biggie, Ole Miss No. 12.

Let’s see now, Ole Miss beat Florida. Bada bing. They must be great, right? BYU is his former team’s nemesis while Georgia is his current nemesis, so there’s no bias whatsoever in giving them the shaft, now is there? 

Our second coach needs no introduction when it comes to hating other conferences. Howard Schnellenberger, coach of the Florida Atlantic Owls, hates the Pac-10. Don’t believe me? Check out his votes: USC No. 8, Oregon No. 19, and he didn’t place Oregon State in the top 25. Yes, Howard, you deserve the booby price for the second straight year (Last year his venom was directed at the Florida Gators).

Our third coach is Bobby Bowden, who truly has shown how sharp his brain is this year. Dadgummit Bobby, either retire or shape up. Oklahoma State got a No. 18 from him, and Michigan State got a No. 13. Did he actually confuse these two teams? It looks like it.

Todd Dodge, coach at North Texas, voted Ball State, the loser to Buffalo in the MAC Championship, No. 15. Let that one sink in.

Dan Hawkins, Colorado’s coach, voted Mizzou at No. 16, Oklahoma No. 1  and Texas No. 2. He just loves the Big 12, doesn’t he?

Mike Leach voted Texas Tech at No. 2. Surprised, anyone?

Pat Hill, Fresno State’s coach, must not have had his coffee when he casted his votes: Boise State No. 6, Ball State No. 17, and Va. Tech No. 12.

Then there’s our lovable Les Miles, who has preached about the tough path of the SEC and its opponents. How did he vote? Like a good ‘ol Southern boy. Florida No. 1, Alabama No. 4, Oregon No. 17 (hate the Pac-10, Les?), Georgia Tech (ACC) No. 12, Georgia No. 13, and Ole Miss No. 14. Surprised Vandy and South Carolina aren’t in there? They may be- there is one team he voted for that didn’t make the top 25. Could it be LSU?

Mark Richt, Georgia’s coach, has also expressed his fondness for the SEC, just like Coach Miles. He ranked Florida No. 1, Alabama No. 2, and Ole Miss No. 20. How does a second place SEC team get ranked ahead of a Big 12 conference champ?

Funny, there are some teams he voted for that didn’t make the top 25- can we guess who they are? (I’ll put ten bucks on South Carolina, LSU and Auburn) If you want to know how five SEC teams were ranked in the top ten at one point, now you know.

Then there are coaches like UCF’s George O’Leary, whose hatred towards one particular conference is pretty evident. O’ Leary’s wrath this year is aimed at the Big Ten- he voted Michigan State No. 25, Northwestern No. 24, and Penn State No. 9.

But he’s not the only one who hates the Big Ten. Chris Petersen (Boise State) voted Penn State at No. 10, Boise State No. 7, and Michigan State No. 23. Ouch.

Gary Pinkel of Missouri placed Oklahoma No. 1, Texas No. 2, Texas Tech No. 6,  Oklahoma State No. 11, and Mizzou No. 18.

Tyrone Willingham voted Mizzou No. 11. How does a four-loss team that got smoked by Texas and Oklahoma get a No. 11 ranking? The other questionable vote by a Pac-10 coach was Rick Neuheisel’s ranking of Oregon State at No. 17, and Texas No. 1.

So which coaches were the most biased? Who gets the Homer Awards this year?

You have to give it to Gary Pinkel (Missouri) for his blatant bias towards the Big 12, Les Miles, Urban Meyer and Mark Richt for their SEC bias, and George O’ Leary for his hate on the Big Ten. Their motto should be, “Individually, we are strong. Together we are stronger.”

The polls are pretty disheartening, and sometimes we don’t understand why they are so skewed. By making the polls public, a fan can now see that polls don’t work. Some coaches were very fair in ranking the teams, while others used it as a platform to give their conference a boost. Disgusted yet?

Ready to scream for playoffs? Can we ditch the coaches poll?

coaches poll: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/2008-12-08-final-coaches-ballots_N.htm

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College Football’s Biggest Surprises of 2008 (So Far)

This year has been typical in that there have been many surprises for fans to talk about.  Let’s recap a few of the biggest be they good or bad.

 

1. Alabama

Everyone said not if, but when Nick Saban would return the Crimson Tide to national prominence and BCS bowls.  Most thought he was at least a year or two away from making that happen.   Alabama’s ascent to number one this year has to be at least one of the biggest surprises.

 

1. Michigan

Help me understand how hiring Rich Rodriguez is a good thing.  They fired Lloyd Carr why?  I don’t believe anybody saw this train wreck coming, especially the people that hired Coach Rod.

 

1. The sudden and complete downfall of Tommy Bowden

Clemson was supposed to be a contender this year.  Instead, their miserable start cost Bowden his job and Clemson their hope for reaching the next level.

 

1. Tennessee

Picked to finish in the top 20, but instead struggling not to finish at the bottom of the SEC with their worst record in decades.  Like Bowden, Fulmer joins the unemployment line with this plummet.

 

1. The Big 12

Yes, many expected Oklahoma to be good, but nobody expected so many teams to have such great seasons.  The SEC is good, but the Big 12 is GREAT.  Never before have so many teams been so close to making it to the top from this conference.

 

1. Oregon State

By beating USC, the mighty Beavers are going to the Rose Bowl ahead of USC with a win over cross-state rival Oregon.  Anybody who said they saw Oregon State beating out USC for the Rose Bowl, raise your hand.  Yeah, that’s what I thought.

 

1. Auburn

Picked by some to win the SEC West, picked by all as a top 20 team, Auburn will be sitting at home this bowl season and perhaps looking for a new coach.  Tuberville’s experiment with the spread proved to be a disaster.  Now he’s trying to simply spread the blame.

 

1. Ole Miss

There’s not a man on the Ole Miss roster that’s ever been to a bowl game.  At the beginning of the season there was reason to expect this year would be different.  Houston Nutt proved one school’s problem could be another school’s solution.  The defeat of Florida cost the Gators a number one ranking and may qualify as the year’s big upset.

 

1. Tim Tebow

How can a former Heisman winner be snubbed the following year by the Unitas Award by not even being nominated?  John Parker Wilson over Tebow?  And we expect them to be rational?

 

1. Vanderbilt

The little team that could.  Vandy hasn’t been to a bowl game since 1982 but will be there this year.  Coach Bobby Johnson proved that the school’s confidence in giving him the time he needed to restore the program was not in vain.

 

Honorable Mention: Notre Dame

Most figured Notre Dame would continue to be an underperforming team, but few figured they would suck THIS bad.  Charlie Weis deserves the Golden Foot to the Lead Butt for this season and should be shown the door.  Many doubt it will happen, however.

 

I number these top 10 all number one because it’s up to you to decide the order. Depending on the area of the country you live in and the team you pull for, I’m sure the order will change.

But as Lee Corso says so often, “Not so fast my friend.”  The season is far from over, and more surprises await.  The biggest story may still be unwritten.

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Updated 2008 Bowl Game Predictions

First and foremost, I need to offer up a confession. The last time I spit out my bowl game predictions – they stunk. Those things reeked worse than LSU’s and Texas Tech’s defense combined. Bad. Awful. Sorry, even.

But… the past is the past. THIS time, I think I got it right. (And I don’t have any teams playing in more than one bowl!)

So… without further ado… my updated bowl game projections for games played through November 22, 2008.

Click here for the complete 2008-2009 College Football Bowl Game Schedule

BCS National Championship Game – Florida vs Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl – Texas vs USC
Rose Bowl – Oregon State vs Penn State
Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Utah
Orange Bowl – Boston College vs Cincinnati

New Mexico – Colorado State vs. Nevada
St. Petersburg – Rutgers vs. Memphis
Las Vegas – BYU vs. Arizona
EagleBank – Clemson vs Navy
New Orleans – Southern Miss vs Troy
Poinsettia – TCU vs Fresno State*
Hawaii – Hawaii vs Western Michigan*
Motor City – Ball State vs Minnesota
Meineke Car Care – UNC vs West Virginia
Champs Sports – Miami vs Iowa
Emerald – Maryland vs San Jose State*
Independence – LaTech* vs U La-La*
Papajohns.com – Pitt vs Arkansas State*
Alamo – Northwestern vs Oklahoma State
Humanitarian – Boise State vs Wake Forest
Texas – Northern Illinois* vs Rice
Holiday – Cal vs Missouri
Armed Forces – Air Force vs Tulsa
Sun – Oregon vs Notre Dame**
Music City – Kentucky vs VaTech
Insight – Wisconsin vs Kansas
Peach/Chick-fil-A – LSU vs Georgia Tech
Outback – Michigan State vs South Carolina
Capital One – Ohio State vs Georgia
Gator – Florida State vs Nebraska
Cotton – Texas Tech vs Ole Miss
Liberty – Houston vs Vandy
International – UConn vs Buffalo
GMAC – ECU vs Central Michigan

* At large teams shown with asterisk when partner conference aren’t projected to have enough eligible teams.
** Yeah, I know. I said ND was a lock for the Gator. They suck and so do I.

The full list of college football bowl games is online.

© www.fanblogs.com

Comment on Updated 2008 Bowl Game Predictions…

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Pigskin Punditry No. 15: Rivalry Week Begins

Normally I try to come up with a fun or interesting topic to lead this piece off each week. Some weeks it works well. Other weeks, my pregame writing falls flat.

But I don’t really feel the need to comment on too much this time of year. It’s time for a big batch of rivalry games.

 

These are the games that matter even if the teams facing each other are 1-10 and 0-10. Like two state rivals would ever be that bad at the same time.

 

What’s that? There is a game like that on the upcoming schedule this week? Yes, even the Apple Cup (or the “Crapple Cup” as ESPN.com’s Ted Miller dubbed the game this week) could have some drama. Because someone has to win it; there are no ties in college football.

 

But I guess Donovan McNabb already knew that.

 

On to the picks:

 

 

 

Ohio State 31, Michigan 13

 

Rich Rodriguez’s long season comes to a whimpering conclusion, as he stares in envy at Terrelle Pryor and wonders what could have been. At least Rich can take solace in the fact that he will be kept warm all winter long thanks to the extremely hot seat that an historic 3-9 record at Michigan will bring him.

 

 

 

Vanderbilt 17, Tennessee 10

 

Vandy has played Tennessee close the last few years. And Tennessee’s uninspiring 13-7 loss to Wyoming (!) tells me all I need to know.

 

 

 

Florida __, The Citadel 3

 

Name the score for this one. Although I really think it should be against the law for a BCS squad to be playing nothing more than a glorified scrimmage this late in the season. Might as well have taken a bye this week instead.

 

 

 

Notre Dame 24, Syracuse 6

 

Well, things turned out okay for the Irish last week – until the final two minutes. Syracuse has already ousted Gregg Robinson and might sleepwalk through this game. I don’t see the Irish losing to Syracuse at this point. If they do, though, Charlie’s bottom is going to get toasted.

 

 

 

Washington State 7, Washington 6

 

See above comment about ties not existing anymore.

 

 

 

Penn State 24, Michigan State 20

 

Senior day in Happy Valley. It could be Joe Paterno’s final home game as head coach (then again, we say that every year). Michigan State has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and are in the somewhat untenable situation (for them) of rooting for Michigan to beat Ohio State so they have a chance to go to the Rose Bowl.

 

But I think the Penn State senior wide receivers will want to go out with a bang, and will pull out a late touchdown to beat Michigan State and head off to Pasadena.

 

 

 

Stanford 24, Cal 20

 

Both teams are good at rushing the ball. Cal is a bit better at getting stops in their 3-4 alignment. But even USC had trouble stopping the Stanford running game, and they knew it was coming.

 

Stanford will regain the axe and achieve bowl eligibility, though, because their high risk, high reward defense will make a big play against Kevin Riley.

 

 

 

Utah 30, BYU 23

 

Utah completes their second undefeated season this decade by beating their arch rivals. I just like Utah’s defense a bit better in the end, although BYU will give Brian Johnson some fits early on.

 

But Johnson leads a late touchdown drive to lead Utah to the Fiesta Bowl (possibly) for the second time in four seasons.

 

 

 

Oklahoma 45, Texas Tech 42

 

So I doubted Texas Tech against Texas. I doubted Texas Tech against Oklahoma State. I was wrong both times.

 

My basic refrain, though, remains the same: That kicking game should make me nervous if I am a Red Raider fan. At some point, it will come back to bite them, and Oklahoma is not a team that you want to face on the road in that scenario.

 

A lot of offensive talent will be on the field for this game, and containing Sam Bradford and the no-huddle offense will be a tough task for the Red Raider defense.

 

But Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree and company will be able to hang with the Sooners. In the end, though, a missed field goal that would have sent the game into overtime will cause some major BCS upheaval.

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Ten Top Tens After Week Nine In College Football

Top Ten Teams

1) Texas-Longhorns schedule starting to wear on them?

2) Penn State-Great win in a great game

3) Alabama-Just not sold on the Tide.

4) Utah- Possible BCS buster that get the least mention?

5) Boise State-Possible BCS buster that gets the most mention.

6) Tulsa-Still to play this weekend

7) Texas Tech-Longhorns next.

Ball State-Continues to win easily.

9) Oklahoma State-Clearly the best of the 1 loss teams.

10) Georgia-From over rated to under rated in a month and a half.

 

Ten Best Games I Watched Yesterday

1) Penn State 13, Ohio State 6 – Even Brent Musburger couldn’t ruin this one.

2) Michigan State 35, Michigan 21- Was more exciting than the score indicates.

3) Texas 28, Oklahoma State 24- Mike Gundy’s team can play some football.

4) Florida Atlantic 29, Louisiana Monroe 28- Got to love Gameplan, TD with about 20 second left.

5) Northern Illinois 16, Bowling Green 13-Haven’t seen a good wind game in a while.

6) Miami 16, Wake Forest 10- Miami is going to be very very good in the very near future.

7) Virginia 24, Georgia 17- While many think the ACC is really bad it’s also really even.

Duke 10, Vandy 7 - That was a really big win for Duke on a lot of levels.

9) Boise State 33, San Jose State 16 – Garbage points dressed up the score.

10) Georgia 52, LSU 38 – That Knowshawn Moreno kid is pretty good.

 

Ten Things My Wife Got Sick of Hearing Yesterday

1) “They’re really trading some helmet paint in Columbus”-I think I said it 65 times during the game.

2) Crunching- What can I say?, I like snack food with my football.

3) “Go!”-Her response, “they can’t hear you through the TV”

4) “Are you going to get the Pizza?” – It’s getting chilly in Chicago.

5) “Miami Won”- In hindsight I think she figured that out the first time I told her.

6) “You _______” -I can’t even type those words.

7) “The fix is in”- I’m starting to see spots where it may actually be.

“Do we have Ice Cream?”-If we had it at noon chances are we still had it every hour after that since we hadn’t eaten any.

9) “Stupid Kicker”-Used either for a kicker on the other team that makes one as well as your kicker who misses one.

10)”Where’s the remote?”-My wife seems to think there’s a magical place where the remote is “supposed to go”.

 

Ten Big Winners

1) Kristofer Green- The winner of my week 9 picking contest. Congrats! (11-4 against the spread, no one else even close).

2) Penn State- The Lions couldn’t wait to be king.

3) Oklahoma State- Got more respect losing than they did all season losing.

4) Jordan Corso- 6-2 against the spread, this guy is good.

5) Georgia Bulldogs- Made a statement heading into their big game next week.

6) Texas Tech-That was a butt whooping from start to finish.

7) Louisville- Don’t look now but the Cardinals are 5-2.

Michigan State- Always fun to beat your rival on the road.

9) Duke-Snaps a 6 game losing streak to Vandy.

10) Maryland – The Terps are 6-2.

 

Ten Big Losers

1) Pittsburgh- No one loses important games like Wanny.

2) Phil Fulmer – A bad call goes against his team and they quit on him.

3) South Florida-Not going to be the season they had hoped for.

4) Auburn- Will they even make a bowl?

5) Colorado – That’s what you call a “spanking”.

6) Ty Willingham- Gets no revenge, just left with a bad football team.

7) Kansas- Weren’t even competitive.

Kentucky -They were losing 42-3 at Halftime.

9) Georgia Tech – Double digit favorite loses outright.

10) Tuesday Night Football – The Temple-Ohio game was just brutal to watch.

 

My Ten Best Picks in Week 9

1) TCU- My highest rated pick ever in the new rating system was a blowout winner.

2) Rutgers- I was feeling pretty lonely on this one.

3) Oregon-Ducks won easy, only disappointment was that I didn’t rate it higher.

4) Michigan State- So easy I was scared.

5) Notre Dame- Smelled like a mismatch.

6) Oklahoma- After further review, the KSU defense still stinks.

7) Troy- Not sure why not too many are on board with the Trojans.

Arizona- The public was big on USC; public big usually means go the other way.

9) Minnesota- I didn’t understand this line and I still don’t.

10) Rice- Got to love picking a dog that’s a blowout winner outright.

 

My Ten Worst Picks in Week 9

1) Northern Illinois-Really not a horrible pick but tough to handicap that there is going to 45 M.P.H. winds.

2) Tennessee- The Vols quit.

3) Cincinnati- Most of the losing score was in the final minutes but still never got it going.

4) Ball State- Just too many points, garbage field goal got me (”stupid kicker!”)

5) Auburn – Now they can’t tackle either.

6) Illinois- It’s been a pattern of good week, bad week; this fit the bad week and it was, we’ll be on them next week.

7) Northwestern- Just were turnover happy yesterday.

UCLA- Not good.

9) San Jose State- Just not enough depth.

10) New Mexico State- Like they should be laying 14 points to anyone?

 

Ten Most Popular Picks in The Free Weekly Picking Contest

1) Pittsburgh – 9 1/2 – This one hurt the most people.

2) Oklahoma-18 – I guess this one was pretty easy.

3) Oregon – 3 1/2 – And I thought I was so smart for picking this one, go figure.

4) Ball State- EMU really isn’t good.

5) Missouri- I didn’t touch this one.

6) Texas Tech-Most has this one pretty highly rated.

7) Minnesota- With that line it made a lot of sense.

Troy- If you read my site even once a week you know all about Troy.

9) Northern Illinois- I’m guilty as charged.

10) Texas- The Horns should have been easy money.

 

Ten Pre-Season Predictions I Made ( I can admit it)

1) Colt McCoy would continue to be inconsistent-I was close…not.

2) Clemson would lose at least 4 games- Bingo!

3) The officiating would continue to get worse- Let’s not forget about the Red River game and all of the others.

4) Duke would be decent- They are.

5) Tennessee would be good- Unless you count being good at stinking I wasn’t even close.

6) Oregon would beat USC- They only lost 44-10, that’s not that bad.

7) TCU would finish 5th in their division- I apologize to all TCU fans but I didn’t save your emails to email you it personally.

Penn State was going no where-Unless you count a trip to the National Championship game in Miami something I was spot on.

9) Juice Williams will win the Heisman- Yeah right, he’s pretty good though.

10) The BCS wouldn’t work again- The jury is still out.

 

Ten Games I’m Looking Forward to For Week Ten

1) Georgia-Florida- Everyone’s pre-season pick as game of the year.

2) Texas-Texas Tech- In hindsight, Texas is the one with the brutal schedule.

3) Tulsa-Arkansas- Let the prognosticating begin; there’s about 100 angles on this one.

4) Nebraska-Oklahoma- Just to see all of the old highlights, and there are some great ones.

5) Miami-Virginia- It’s a fun time to be a Canes fan again though they are a year or two away.

6) Pittsburgh-Notre Dame-Could be entertaining.

7) Oregon-Cal- Sounds like a track meet type of game.

Wisconsin-Michigan State- Maybe Wisky has the ship righted?

9) West Virginia-UConn- Big East battle.

10) Western Kentucky-North Texas- Someone has to win.

See all of Mitch’s Articles and Videos as well as Joining fellow Bleacher Kristofer Green as a WINNER of Mitch’s weekly picking contest at The College Football Place.

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Week Nine College Football Picks: The “This Is Sparta!” Edition

Last week’s 7-10 performance was okay. I missed the key SEC matchup between LSU and South Carolina, and I’m still angry at Harry Coleman because of it. 

This week, plenty of games are up in the air, conference races are starting to get interesting, and the polls are getting tight at the top.  Good times. 

That said, I have no idea who is going to win nearly all of these games, so I’m going with the Upset Special theme.  It’s the Week of the Underdog, fellow droogs. 

I’m bypassing the lame Thursday games for a WAC Friday night thriller.

Boise State at San Jose State (Upset Special Part One)

San Jose State has an ugly loss to Nebraska and another defeat at the hands of Stanford.  But they are undefeated in WAC play thus far—and conference games always bring a new element.

I have not seen the Spartans play for one second this year, but I’m picking them mainly so I can write the words “This is Sparta!”

That should be a mandatory video clip on the JumboTron after every first down.  Seriously.  Hopefully San Jose State has a JumboTron. 

Winner: San Jose State, 34-31

On to Saturday’s games.

Michigan State at Michigan

Sure, the Spartans looked awful last week, but they’ve played well in close games for a change—and I have a feeling this will be a barnburner. 

Ringer gets it going early and keeps Michigan’s offense on the sidelines.

Plus, it’s the “This is Sparta” theme, so they get my pick by default.

Winner: Michigan State, 24-23

Texas Tech at Kansas (Upset Special Part Two)

Sorry, Mike Leach, but I’m picking against you this week and the three weeks to follow.  Your team might be better than Kansas, but I don’t care what the Texas Tech faithful are saying: The Red Raiders are overrated, and we all know it. 

Like Billy Madison once said, “O’Doyle, I’ve got a feeling your whole family’s going down.”

Mike Leach, you are O’Doyle, and Mangino is Billy Madison.  Or something. 

Winner: Kansas, 38-35

Cincinnati at UConn

It’s hard to tell how good the Bearcats are this year, as they have posted marginal wins over weak opponents.  UConn, though, is on an ugly two-game losing streak—getting pasted by North Carolina and upended by a weak Rutgers team. 

Huskies continue their downward spiral.

Winner: Cincinnati, 20-19

Wake Forest at Miami

Jim Grobe’s Demon Deacons let me down mightily last week.  I’m banking (again) on Riley Skinner to finally return to form and put up some points.

Wake still has a good chance to win their division, so they will show up to play. Meanwhile, Miami is trying to avoid the cellar spot normally reserved for Duke. 

Robert Marve has looked awful his last six quarters of play, so Jacory Harris will likely get early action against a tough Wake defense.    

If Wake loses, I’m never picking them again.  Until next week.     

Winner: Wake Forest, 24-21

Kentucky at Florida

A seemingly easy pick here, as Kentucky is decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. Down in Gainesville, the Gators are coming off a huge win over LSU and an additional week to heal injuries to key offensive players. 

This one should get ugly early. 

Winner: Florida, 45-10

Duke at Vanderbilt (Upset Special Part Three)

Vandy has made a living off of turnovers, but on paper, they won’t have that advantage this week.  Not only has Duke thrown just three picks, the Blue Devils have a +7 turnover margin—the same as Vandy.

Vanderbilt’s pass defense is suspect, and Duke makes its living through the air.  Something has to give.  

In the end, I like Duke to minimize mistakes, take care of the ball, and lean on Cutcliffe’s experience with beating the ‘Dores.

Winner: Duke, 27-24

Oklahoma State at Texas

I’ve picked against Texas the last two weeks, and the Longhorns have proved me wrong both times—big time. 

I’d love to continue the Upset Special theme, but I’m simply not sold on Mike Gundy’s manhood or how good his team is. 

Winner: Texas, 35-24

Rutgers at Pittsburgh (Upset Special Part Four)

This is the typical Wannstache trap game. 

Pitt is cruising and in control of its destiny in the Big East.  Rutgers, on the other hand, looks terrible, although they are “improving.”  But Pitt will find a way to crumble—at home, of course. 

Schiano looks like a proud dad after the game. 

Winner: Rutgers, 20-17

Georgia at LSU (Upset Special Part Five)

Okay, it’s not too much of an upset, since both teams are SEC powerhouses coming off solid wins—and LSU is at home. 

Georgia has now lost both starting offensive tackles, and LSU’s D-line is still sacking Stephen Garcia as I write this. 

Georgia hits a few long balls, but LSU wins the war up front and eventually wears down the Dawgs, pulling out a close one at home—and Harry Coleman will pick up yet another unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.   

Winner: LSU, 28-27

Virginia Tech at FSU (Upset Special Part Six)

Again, not much of an upset, but FSU is ranked, at home, and at the top of the division, so technically it counts.

Too much good is happening in Tallahassee right now.  They need some of the good old disappointment that has treated them so well the last few seasons.

Tech bursts the Noles’ bubble.

Winner: Virginia Tech, 27-24

Alabama at Tennessee

No upset here.  Tennessee’s 34-3 win from last week looks good on paper, but the box score tells the real story: The Vols still can’t move the ball against a decent defense. 

Alabama decides to play a few snaps in the second half of a terribly boring game. 

Winner: Alabama, 27-13

Penn State at Ohio State (Game of the Week and Upset Special Part Seven)

I’ll come clean: I hate the Big Ten.  But I really see this game turning out to be an Instant Classic. 

Pryor and Wells are clicking more and more each week and look to be peaking. Meanwhile, Penn State might have peaked too early. 

The Buckeyes’ D comes up big in the clutch. 

Winner, in a thriller: Ohio State, 31-30

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Four keys to BCS Top 10

The first BCS Poll will be released Monday morning, and the Buckeyes are looking to break into a decent slot on the initial release.  As it stands right now, the Bucks are slotted at around 12 or 13.  But there lies a decent future for Ohio State if the chips fall nicely for us.

For this weekend’s games, four positives need to happen for us.  One actually has already taken place.

First and foremost, Ohio State needs to take care of business.  Knocking off #20 Michigan State on their own field would be a big step up.  With the AP Poll showing us at #12 and the Coaches Poll at #11, we would solidify our standing and rise up further.

Second, we need one BIG upset in the Top 10 to unexpectedly knock a team down.  This one already happened, when #9 BYU got spanked hard last night, 32-7 by TCU.  There was doubt about BYU prior to this game, they’ll tumble a LONG way now.

Third, we need Texas to take care of business.  They showed they are for real by taking down previous #1 Oklahoma, and now they return home to battle #11 Missouri.  Mizzou will be fighting for their lives in the tough Big 12, which has five teams ranked in the Top 12.  Texas is favored to win, and if they hold up their end, Ohio State will pull away from the Tigers.

Fourth, we need a small upset.  Vanderbilt comes in at #22 and is still itching to prove they are not the same old Vandy.  They travel to #10 Georgia, who no longer looks at all like the team that would roll through the SEC and on to the NC.  Georgia’s last four games have been plagued with weakness, near-upsets, and one big curb-stomping at the hands of Bama.  If Vandy can take advantage of this game and catapult themselves back into the the SEC East lead, it will also be helping the Buckeyes.

These four positives are not stretches at all.  And together, they will ensure a Top 10 ranking in the initial BCS Poll.

Then, and only then, can we begin to discuss the implications of knocking off Penn State, who is now eyeing not only the Big Ten title, but the National Championship.  First things first.

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Pigskin Punditry No. 10: Midseason Standings

We have reached the midway point of the season for most teams in Division I-A (aka the Football Bowl Subdivision).

 

Let’s take a look at our preseason projections and see how they stack up so far. We’ll go conference by conference to see who the leaders are today, and see if my preseason picks align with the current reality:

 

 

 

ACC

Atlantic Division Prediction: Wake Forest

Coastal Division Prediction: Virginia Tech

Current Leaders: Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. For now, we are correct. Virginia Tech needs to watch out for Georgia Tech, and Wake has a virtual two-game lead on second-place Florida State (thanks to the head-to-head victory back in September).

 

 

 

Big 12

North Division Prediction: Missouri

South Division Prediction: Oklahoma

Current Leaders: Kansas in the North, and a three-way tie in the South between Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. KU is the only team in the North undefeated in conference play, but they still have to play Missouri at the end of the season in Kansas City. Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Texas begin their self-round robin next week.

 

 

 

Big East

Preseason Prediction: South Florida

Current Leader(s): Pitt and West Virginia. South Florida is only one game back, but since their conference loss was to Pitt, that puts them in a slightly bigger hole than it appears on paper.

 

 

 

Big Ten

Preseason Prediction: Ohio State

Current Leader(s): Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan State. The next two weeks will sort a little bit of this out as the Buckeyes travel to East Lansing this week and host Penn State next weekend. The Nittany Lions and Michigan State will face off to close the Big Ten regular season in mid-November if they both manage to outlast Ohio State.

 

 

 

Conference USA

East Division Prediction: East Carolina

West Division Prediction: Tulsa

Current Leaders: Marshall in the East and Tulsa and UTEP in the West. But the Golden Hurricane and the Miners will square off this Saturday.

 

 

 

Independents

Preseason Prediction: Notre Dame

Currently, Notre Dame and Navy have the same record (4-2). The two schools face off Nov. 15 in Baltimore, Md.

 

 

 

Mid-American Conference

East Division Prediction: Bowling Green

West Division Prediction: Ball State

Current Leaders: Bowling Green and Western Michigan. Ball State is a half-game back of Western Michigan because the Cardinals stepped out of MAC play this past weekend. Western Michigan plays their last non-conference game against Illinois in mid=November.

 

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Preseason Prediction: Utah

Current Leader: TCU. Utah is a half-game back and hosts TCU on Nov. 6, their second game in five days that week.

 

 

 

Pac-10 Conference

Preseason Prediction: USC

Current Leader: California. The Golden Bears are the only undefeated team in conference play at this point. Cal travels to Los Angeles to play the Trojans on Nov. 8, assuming they get by Arizona this week and Oregon in two weeks.

 

 

 

SEC

East Division Prediction: Georgia

West Division Prediction: Auburn

Current Leaders: Florida and Vanderbilt (!) tied in the East, and Alabama in the lead in the West. Oh, and raise your hand if you had Tennessee pegged as being winless in conference play through the middle of October. Yeah, me neither.

 

 

 

Sun Belt Conference

Preseason Prediction: Florida Atlantic

Current Leader(s): As usual, the unpredictable Sun Belt has a four-way tie between Troy, Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State and Florida International (!) Down is up, up is down, but Troy can be found at the top of the standings. I wonder if Tony Franklin regrets moving down to Auburn.

 

 

 

WAC

Preseason Prediction: Fresno State

Current Leader: San Jose State, with Boise State and New Mexico State a half game back. Fresno is in the middle of the pack with a .500 conference record. Idaho sits in last place at 0-3.

 

Let’s get to the picks. So far, I am 11-8 thanks to an absolutely abysmal week last week (1-3). Here’s to turning things around.

 

We’ll start in Austin, Texas, where the Missouri Tigers are trying to not only pick up the pieces of their shattered national championship dreams, but they are also trying to end a losing streak in Austin against the Longhorns that stretches back to 1896.

 

Yes, I know that the stat is somewhat misleading because Missouri and Texas never played regularly until the Big 12 formed, and even then, Missouri only travels to Austin once every four years.

 

I can’t help but flash back to the first Saturday of my freshman year. I was in the TV lounge in my dorm, and I sat down to watch the inaugural Big 12 football game. It was Missouri vs. Texas. Mizzou was actually in the game for a while, but then there was a weather delay that killed all of the momentum.

 

That was 12 years ago. In that time, Texas has won a national championship and Missouri has resurrected their program (after an extended period of dormancy). Both teams have Heisman trophy contenders directing explosive offenses. Both teams feature shaky secondaries.

 

My concern heading into this game is with Chase Daniel. He was rattled and frustrated by the end of the Oklahoma State game.

 

Will Muschamp, Texas’s defensive coordinator, will be a head coach somewhere when this season is over. He is that good and has been for a while.

 

Couple that with the fact that Chase might have something to prove to Mack Brown for not recruiting him harder before he committed to Missouri, I fear that Daniel will try to do too much. He’ll get picked at least twice by Texas’s green secondary, and the Longhorns will win 38-24.

 

Let’s travel from one group of Tigers to another. This time, we will head to Clemson, S.C., where those Tigers will host the Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech in an ACC tilt.

 

I won’t get into the soap opera that took place this week with the firing of Tommy Bowden. I’ll address that in a separate piece.

 

The only comment that I will make here is that the timing of the firing seems off, since a bye week was coming after Saturday’s game.

 

A quarterback change from Cullen Harper to Willy Korn, plus losing CJ Spiller, plus a shaky offensive line plus facing the triple option offense of Georgia Tech might just be too much drama for Clemson to overcome.

 

I’ll say Georgia Tech heads back to Atlanta Saturday night with a 27-10 victory in which they attempt 11 passes.

 

Speaking of schools that play in the state of Georgia, an important SEC East battle will take place between the hedges as one of the surprises of the first half of the season, Vanderbilt, will face the Bulldogs Saturday afternoon.

 

Vandy came away from their last trip to Sanford Stadium with a 24-22 victory and almost beat Georgia in Nashville last season. The Commodores suffered an ugly loss to Mississippi State in Starkville last week 17-14, in a performance that looked and smelled like a letdown game after their thrilling upset of Auburn the week before.

 

Georgia had a week off to lick their wounds from the sound thrashing that Alabama delivered to them, and then handled a puzzling Tennessee team 26-14.

 

Georgia is about to begin a string of three straight games against ranked opponents, with a game at LSU next week and the annual rivalry match against Florida in two weeks.

 

But I think Georgia knows that they cannot overlook Vandy. Not after the last two years. And while the Commodores have improved, I don’t think they’ll be able to pull off the shocker. It should be close again, but Georgia will avenge 2006’s home field loss and win this one 26-17.

 

Lastly, we’ll leave the southern part of our country and head to the upper Midwest for an old school Big Ten battle. Ohio State travels to East Lansing, Mich., to face a surprising Michigan State squad.

 

Ohio State is now led by true freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor, but the offense is still as stagnant as it was under Todd Boeckman.

 

The Buckeyes rank 108th nationally in passing offense (143.6 yards per game) and 70th in scoring offense (24.3 points per game). Apparently, there are reports of grumbling in the locker room about the offensive direction.

 

And yet the Buckeyes have only lost once, to a good USC squad.

 

Meanwhile, I think most of us that follow college football regularly are awaiting the annual swoon that seems to hit Michigan State this time of year. Last week’s game at Northwestern would have been the natural stumbling point.

 

All Michigan State did was jump out to a 17-0 lead and never look back in cruising to a 37-20 victory over the Wildcats in Evanston.

 

Now, they get the Buckeyes at home for a game to decide at least a share of first place in the Big Ten.

 

The key to the game will be tailback Javon Ringer vs. the Ohio State defense. Ringer is averaging 35 carries for 158 yards per game this season.

 

If Michigan State can use him to grind it out and play keep away, they have an excellent chance of winning.

 

Ohio State must get Ringer off the field somehow. Or at the very least, use their own running backs (Beanie Wells, Maurice Wells, Brandon Saine and Pryor) to take Ringer out of the game and put the game in the hands of Michigan State quarterback Brian Hoyer.

 

But that swoon we keep looking for? I don’t see it happening for Michigan State this time. I think that Mark Dantonio might have finally gotten the culture to shift a little at Michigan State, and I think that Sparty will be celebrating a victory on Saturday. Michigan State wins, 24-13.

 

Questions? Comments? Complaints? E-mail the Pigskin Pundit at pigskinpundit@gmail.com

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