Alabama coach Nick Saban on the field before the Crimson Tide’s win Saturday vs. LSU.(Photo: John David Mercer, USA TODAY Sports) Prediction Machine’s Director of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, takes a look at what the College Football Playoffs could look like through 50,000 simulations of the top four teams in the College Football Playoff committee ranking. Follow John on Twitter @JohnEwingfor more notes from his analysis and to let him know what else you may like to see with these projections. How this works The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play every game 50,000 times before it’s actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the College Football Playoff. Football Four Playoff summary The College Football Playoff selection committee ranked Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame as the top four teams in the land this week. This mirrored the Football Four Playoff Projection, with the exception of the Irish taking the fourth seed from Oklahoma State. Follow the road to the 2015 College Football Playoff at The Football Four, our home to rate and debate the nation’s best. With the rankings changing weekly, what is the chance that these teams will be included in the four-team playoff? Note: The projected playoff percentage is our best approximation of a subjective process based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season factoring in strength-of-schedule, projected records, likelihood of winning each game through conference championship weekend and various power rankings. Clemson The Tigers have three regular season games left against teams that are outside the top 50 in our Power Rankings. With a dual threat quarterback and a shutdown defense (top 15 in both defensive rushing and passing efficiency), Clemson has a 63.5% chance to win out through the ACC title game and a 67.0% chance to make the Playoff. …
Continue Reading: Playoff Simulation: Why Alabama, not Clemson, would win the title
