The buzzer beaters this weekend were amazing. I was in heaven listening to Gus Johnson lose it as George Mason came back to beat Villanova, who were up by 6 points with less than 2 minutes to play. I asked myself, when is a lead safe in college basketball? It’s a topic that even Bill Simmons has bloviated on frequently in the past.
To answer this question, I used a data set created by Brian Burke of Advanced NFL stats. (You can get the data here.) Brian took 1,782 NCAA games over 3 seasons and recorded the point differential each minute and which team ultimately won (a total…
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