Ohio State Doesn’t Deserve to Be 2016-17 National Championship Favorites

COLUMBUS, Ohio — When Bovada (via Odds Shark) released its most recent national championship odds for the 2016-17 college football season, it didn’t take long to spot the first head-scratcher on the list. It came at the very top. Despite dealing with a mass exodus of experienced NFL-ready talent while preparing to face its toughest schedule of the Urban Meyer era, it was Ohio State who the offshore gambling site proclaimed as college football’s national championship favorite for the coming year. With 6-1 odds, the Buckeyes edged out defending national champ Alabama (7-1), runner-up Clemson (15-2) and rival Michigan (15-2) as the favorites to capture college football’s crown in the coming year. As recently as a month ago, Ohio State was listed behind both the Crimson Tide and Tigers—who both still possessed their current odds—with the Buckeyes and Wolverines both ranking third, along with Baylor at 12-1. So why the change when all that’s happened since now and then was a national signing day where Alabama inked a higher-ranked class than Ohio State? First, it’s important to note that odds aren’t always a reflection of what oddsmakers project will happen, but rather what will protect them from potentially dangerous payouts on what bettors deem as strong value picks. So while Bovada still feels the same way about Alabama and Clemson as it did just weeks ago, based on their odds, early money on the Buckeyes’ initial line likely forced oddsmakers to cut the potential payout on an Ohio State national championship in half. Betting on the Buckeyes makes a lot more sense when the payout is $12 for every $1 risked, rather than their current 6-1 odds. With a relatively straightforward path to the College Football Playoff, arguably the Big Ten’s best quarterback returning in J.T. Barrett, a three-time national champion head coach and the addition of the nation’s fourth-ranked 2016 recruiting class, the rationale was certainly there for Ohio State to be perceived as a value pick based on the Buckeyes’ potential return on investment at 12-1. Ross D. …

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