NFL draft sleepers, risks based on their college production

10:36 AM ET For the second year in a row, I’m going to play NFL general manager. It worked out pretty well a year ago, with one notable exception. My task is to pick three players who may outperform where they’re picked in the NFL draft later this week and three players who may underperform where they’re drafted. I hit on all three of the sleepers last year — Penn State safety Adrian Amos, Clemson defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and Kansas State receiver Tyler Lockett. None of the three was drafted higher than the third round, but they all had anywhere from strong to spectacular debut seasons in the NFL. Lockett made the Pro Bowl as a return specialist and set a Seattle Seahawks rookie record with 1,915 all-purpose yards. Amos made the 2015 All-Rookie Team as selected by the Pro Football Writers Association. As for the three players I picked to underperform, lumping former Georgia running back Todd Gurley in that group doesn’t look too smart right now. All he did last season was rush for 1,106 yards and earn NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. What knee problems, right? The other two on that list — LSU cornerback Jalen Collins and Miami receiver Phillip Dorsett — struggled for much of last season as rookies despite being taken among the top 42 picks in the draft. In fairness, they’ve played only one season as pros. …

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