Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports Ohio State has a very inexperienced team. How good, or bad, could they be this season? Earlier we looked at Ohio State’s 2015 season according to S&P+ tiers — what teams are peers according to the S&P+ adjusted scoring margins. Following David Wunderlich, we saw that Ohio State really only had two games last season that the final S&P+ rankings suggested were toss-ups. Now, let’s take that idea and apply it to the 2016 schedule using the projected S&P+ ratings: S&P+ S&P+ Rank Tier Proj. Points difference Bowling Green 3.4 60 -2 13 Tulsa -5 93 -4 21.4 Oklahoma 22 4 1 -5.6 Rutgers -3.1 87 -3 19.5 Indiana 3.9 56 -2 12.5 Wisconsin 8.3 37 -2 8.1 Penn State 11.3 28 -1 5.1 Northwestern 5.1 46 -2 11.3 Nebraska 11.6 26 -1 4.8 Maryland 2.9 62 -2 13.5 Michigan State 13.5 22 -1 2.9 Michigan 19.3 6 1 -2.9 Using the projected point differences between the S&P+ margins, I followed David and used a touchdown difference as the space for tiers. So, since Ohio State’s projected S&P+ margin was 16.4 and Oklahoma’s was 22 (a 5.6 point difference in favor of the Sooners), the Buckeyes are within one tier of the Sooners. Ohio State has seven games against either “sure thing” or “heavily favored” teams next season, with five games where the S&P+ either projects the Buckeyes as underdogs or has the games as close wins/toss-ups. The five toss-up or underdog games are Penn State, Nebraska, Michigan State (all projected touchdown-or-less wins), Oklahoma, and Michigan…
Continue Reading: What are the best and worst-case scenarios for Ohio State in 2016?
