My S&P+ ratings have been extremely dialed in over the last couple of weeks. After a midseason slump, they hit 56 percent against the spread in back-to-back weeks with an absolute error — the average difference between projected and actual margins — at 11 or lower each week. (As means of comparison, the spread tends to have an absolute error around 12.2, and over the course of a season, almost no ratings system does better than that.) I mention this not to pound my chest — okay, not entirely, anyway — but to set the table. Good predictive ratings are not résumé ratings, and they don’t give you bonus points for wins and losses. They simply compare expected output to actual output and adjust accordingly. If you’re interested in a decent résumé ranking of sorts, I encourage you to visit this post on strength of schedule. I created a Resume…
Continue Reading: 130-team S&P+ rankings, where Ohio State somehow remains the safest bet in college football
